Big Ten Championship Game Preview: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State

Quarterback Dillon Gabriel of the Oregon Ducks looks to pass against the Idaho Vandals at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., on Aug. 31. Ali Gradischer/Getty Images

This weekend presents some remarkable matchups with more at stake than ever in college football. With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams this season, teams have a lot to play for in their respective conference championship games, including a bye in the playoff (to the four highest-ranked conference champions).

One game that will certainly determine one of the CFP byes is the Big Ten Championship game between two of the top three teams in the current AP Poll: Oregon and Penn State. Two teams that have enjoyed a great deal of success, both historically and recently, will battle for the right to skip the first-round game.

Here’s the tale of the tape:

Big Ten Championship Game

No. 1 Oregon (12-0) vs. No. 3 Penn State (11-1) 8 p.m. EST Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

Team Offense

Oregon

• 448.5 yards/game (1st in Big Ten)
• 35.2 points/game (3rd in Big Ten)
• 170.9 rush yards/game (5th in Big Ten)
• Special teams: Oregon is the only team in the Big Ten with both a kickoff and punt return for a touchdown

Penn State

• 442.8 yards/game (2nd in Big Ten)
• 33.3 points/game (4th in Big Ten)
• 194.7 rush yards/game (2nd in Big Ten)

The Quarterbacks

Oregon: Dillon Gabriel – 73.5 percent completion rate, 3,275 yards, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

Penn State: Drew Allard – 71.6 percent completion rate, 2,668 yards, 18 touchdowns, 5 interceptions

Impact Players

Oregon: RB Jordan James – 1,166 rushing yards, 182 receiving yards, 13 TDs, 5.7 yards/carry

Penn State: TE Tyler Warren – 978 receiving yards, 189 rushing yards, 10 TDs (6 receiving, 4 rushing)

Team Defense

Oregon

• 16.2 points/game (4th in Big Ten)
• 283.9 yards/game (4th in Big Ten)

Penn State

• 14.0 points/game (2nd in Big Ten)
• 266.8 yards/game (3rd in Big Ten)

Best Win(s)

Oregon

• 37-34 vs. Boise State (Sept. 7)
• 32-31 vs. Ohio State (Oct. 12)
• 38-9 vs. Illinois (Oct. 26)

Penn State

• 21-7 vs. Illinois (Sept. 28)

Who Has the Advantage?

Oregon has played the harder schedule with three wins against quality opponents; the Ducks also have a win against the most significant common opponent, Ohio State. Dillon Gabriel has been able to play almost mistake-free football all year with a deep pool of receivers and a strong running game. They’ve won close games and enjoyed their share of blowout wins. But all three of their most important wins have come at home.

Penn State lost at home to Ohio State and avoided the other one-loss team in the Big Ten, Indiana. The Nittany Lions’ loss to the Buckeyes came at home, and they escaped with a one-point win at Minnesota just two weeks ago. Drew Allard’s draft stock is rising, and Tyler Warren might be the first tight end called by an NFL team in the 2025 draft.

Based on their experience playing the best teams on their respective schedules, and the fact that Oregon is playing for the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff as the lone remaining undefeated team, the Ducks figure to be the favorite going in.