2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament: The Biggest Weakness of Every No. 1 Seed

UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, and USC are all seeded No. 1 in Women’s March Madness, but each has flaws that could prevent them from reaching the Final Four.

South Carolina forward Sania Feagin celebrates after scoring against Texas during the second half during of an NCAA college basketball game in the final of the Southeastern Conference tournament in Greenville, S.C., on March 9, 2025. Chris Carlson/AP Photo

When it comes to March Madness, going with chalk is often a risky proposition due to the inevitable upsets. However, that is only for the men’s side, as the Women’s NCAA Tournament usually lines up with the seedings.

Over the last 12 years of the women’s tourney, a No. 1 seed has cut down the net 11 times. There has also never been a Final Four without a No. 1 seed, as many often back a 1-seed over the rest of the 64-team field, and that strategy is usually successful.

However, that doesn’t mean the top seeds in the 2025 Women’s March Madness bracket—UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, and USC—are not without flaws. Each of them lost multiple times this season as there’s no utterly dominant squad, like South Carolina in 2024, or UConn before them. Even though it’s rare, the No. 1s can be taken down. Below are the Kryptonite for every 1-seed.

UCLA Bruins (30–2)

Fortunately for UCLA, which is the top overall seed, it won’t have to see its crosstown rival in USC until the Final Four. That’s because both of UCLA’s defeats came to USC, and the Trojans also defeated UCLA twice last season. Both of the losses this year can be summed up by one phrase: turnover margin. The Bruins committed 15 more turnovers than USC in both games combined, while both protecting the ball and taking it away from opponents has been an issue all season.

UCLA enters the Women’s NCAA Tournament with more turnovers on offense than it has forced on defense. This concern is compounded by the fact that Cori Close’s squad isn’t particularly adroit with the 3-point shot. UCLA ranks 49th out of the 68 tourney teams in 3-point percentage (32.7 percent), so if sloppy play gets the Bruins into an early deficit, they may not have the firepower to overcome that hole.

South Carolina Gamecocks (30–3)

The defending champs saw two of their three defeats coming versus fellow No. 1s in UCLA and Texas. While the offensive efficiency of the Gamecocks has retained from last season, the defensive intensity has not. Carolina brought back nine of their 10-women rotation from last year, but the one loss—Kamilla Cardoso—was a big one. Then, that rotation was trimmed again when Ashlyn Watkins, who was All-SEC in 2023–24, was lost to a season-ending injury halfway through the year.

As South Carolina’s leading shot-blocker, Watkins’ absence means the Gamecocks have to commit more people to the paint to prevent interior scoring, and that has opened up opportunities from beyond the arc. After ranking 20th in 3-point percentage allowed a year ago, Dawn Staley and company rank 91st this season. Additionally, South Carolina will be battling history in addition to 3-point defense as the last seven defending champions failed to repeat in cutting down the nets.

Texas Longhorns (31–3)

Two of Texas’ defeats came to fellow No. 1, South Carolina, while the other loss came versus Notre Dame. While seeing the Gamecocks can’t come until the Final Four, it just so happens that the Fighting Irish are in the same region as the Longhorns, and the two could meet in the Elite Eight. History is also not necessarily in UT’s favor as a 1-seed, as it has failed to reach the Final Four the last three times it was seeded No. 1, including last year when it fell in the Elite Eight.

On the court, Texas’ glaring weakness is that it simply ignores the 3-point line on offense. The Longhorns rank dead last among tourney teams in both 3-point makes and 3-point attempts. While that offensive strategy has worked for the Burnt Orange so far, simply not having the long ball as an option has to be worrisome for Longhorns fans.

USC Trojans (28–3)

After beating UCLA twice, the Bruins got their revenge in the Big Ten Tournament as they handed the Trojans one of their three losses of the year. As the last-ranked No. 1 seed, that means USC was placed in the same region as the top-ranked No. 2 seed, and that’s the UConn Huskies. While USC defeated UConn in a regular-season game in December, it was the Huskies who knocked the then-1-seed Trojans out of last year’s Women’s NCAA Tournament in the Elite Eight.

USC ranks second in the nation with 6.8 blocks per game, and while that would indicate an elite interior defense, in this case, it does not. While the Trojans do protect the paint, it’s the mid-range where they struggle. You usually have to worry about an opponent getting hot from deep, but the Trojans have to worry about a foe catching fire on 2-point attempts that come outside the lane. The stats back that up as USC is 27–0 when keeping the other team to 50 percent or less on 2-point attempts. The Trojans, however, are just 1–3 when an opponent knocks down over half of their 2-pointers.