Senators, Polls Say Manchin or Third-Party Bid Would Hurt Biden, Help Trump

'For many voters, the status quo is a no-go'

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee chair, presides over a hearing on battery technology in Washington on Sept. 22, 2022. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that nearly half of voters would consider a third-party candidate.

The poll found that voters were split evenly: 47 percent would consider voting for a third-party candidate, while another 47 said they would not. The voters who said they would were overwhelming Independents, while the majority of Democrats and Republicans said they would not. Democrats were slightly more willing to switch their vote, with 61 percent considering it and 35 not considering it, compared to Republicans’ 57 percent and 38 percent.

“With neither President Biden nor former President Trump knocking it out of the park on favorability, almost half of the country would consider another option,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. “No specific name for the candidate, no specific designation for the party, but it is a vivid indication that for many voters, the status quo is a no-go.”

The voters were given a list of eight issues and asked which were most important. “Economy” was the top concern with 31 percent of the vote, and “preserving democracy in the United States” followed with 29 percent.

Will Manchin Run Against Biden?

Eyes are currently on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as a possible third-party challenger, especially since Mr. Manchin appeared this week at a town hall hosted by No Labels, which is planning to raise $70 million to put a third-party candidate on the ballot.

In a July 12 statement, Mr. Manchin noted: “It is clear that most Americans are exceedingly frustrated by the growing divide in our political parties and toxic political rhetoric from our elected leaders. Our political discourse is lacking engaged debates around common sense solutions to solve the pressing issues facing our nation. I am looking forward to modeling this type of conversation with my good friend, Gov. Huntsman, and the No Labels community.”

Politicians on both sides of the aisle have said a third-party ticket would only weaken support for Mr. Biden.

“The No Labels effort would elect Donald Trump,”  Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) told reporters. “I asked my chief strategist: ‘What would a candidate have to be like in order to draw [voters] from Donald Trump as opposed to drawing from Joe Biden?’ He said it would have to be someone to the right of Donald Trump.”

Joe Biden (L) and Donald Trump. Illustration by The Epoch Times/Getty Images

“And a poll would prove it,” he added. “By the way, we do all this talking. Just run a poll. Run a poll: Biden versus Trump. Then run the same poll: Biden, Trump, Manchin—and see who is affected. I know the answer.”

The Quinnipiac did not name any hypothetical third-party candidates, but No Labels spokesperson Maryanne Martini told Bloomberg it showed an “unprecedented opening for an independent ticket in 2024.”

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told The Hill that “I would guess that Manchin would take more Democrat [votes],” but if the Republican candidate was Mr. Trump he would be facing other opposition within the party in any case.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told The Hill that Mr. Trump’s supporters were “baked in,” and an emerging third-party challenger would only divide the rest of the votes, making No Labels a threat to Mr. Biden’s campaign.

“I think it’s dangerous because whether they mean to or not, it could help the reelection of Donald Trump, which would be a disaster for our country,” she said. “Donald Trump’s supporters are baked in. So the question becomes of those that do not support him, who do they vote for? You divide that vote. It certainly doesn’t help.”

Hypothetical Candidate Wins Out: Poll

On Thursday, Monmouth University revealed poll results that showed a named third-party candidate would get less support than a hypothetical one.

It found that just under half of voters said they would “definitely” (36 percent) or “probably” (11 percent) vote for Mr. Biden, and only about 4 in 10 voters would “definitely” (26 percent) or “probably” (14 percent) vote for Mr. Trump.

“In a replay of the 2020 election, some voters clearly feel they have to back a candidate they don’t really like. That suggests there may be an opening for a third party in 2024, but when you drill down further, there doesn’t seem to be enough defectors to make that a viable option,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

About a third of Americans are open to voting for a “fusion” third-party ticket that included both a Democrat and Republican, with twice as many voters saying they would not when Monmouth asked voters without naming a candidate.

But support dropped when they were asked whether they would vote for Mr. Manchin and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who joined Mr. Manchin at the No Labels town hall.

In this case, only 16 percent of voters were open to the ticket, while 75 percent would not vote for a Manchin-Huntsman ticket.

No Labels Says It Won’t Help Trump

The group has pledged to end its own campaign if polling shows Mr. Biden “way, way out ahead” of Mr. Trump.

Ben Davis, the Democratic co-chair of No Labels, went on NBC last month to dissuade Democrat critics that the organization is out to split the party vote, and that it would “stand down” if that came to be the case.

“No Labels is not and will not be a spoiler in favor of Donald Trump in 2024,” Mr. Davis said.  “After Super Tuesday next year [and] before the [No Labels] convention in Dallas in April, there will be a decision.”