Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now Poses No Significant Threat to Earth, Scientists Say

The Earth from 36,000 nautical miles away as photographed from the Apollo 10 spacecraft during its trans-lunar journey toward the moon on May 18, 1969. NASA via AP

After two months of careful observations, scientists from the United States and Europe have lowered the threat level of a newly discovered asteroid that previously posed a significant collision risk with Earth.

These risks have now been fully ruled out, NASA said in a post on its Planetary Defense blog.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in northern Chile. Circling our solar system in a four-year orbit, the rock was measured to be approximately 130 feet to 300 feet across.

Automated warning systems quickly identified that the object had a small, but worrisome chance of colliding with the Earth during its projected fly-by in 2032.

“An asteroid of this size could cause severe damage to a local region if it were to impact Earth and so it attracted the attention of the global planetary defence community and triggered the efforts of international asteroid response groups,” the European Space Agency (ESA) said in a statement.

On Feb. 18, ESA’s calculations estimated the odds of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, to be as high as 2.8 percent.

With these odds, 2024 YR4 was topping the world’s asteroid-risk lists.

“However, just the next day, observations made using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope cut the impact probability in half,” the ESA said.

An arrow where asteroid 2024 YR4 would be, on Dec. 27, 2024. ATLAS/University of Hawaii/NASA via AP

As additional observations yielded more detailed information, the odds dropped even further.

Experts at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have been able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and have now updated its impact probability to only 0.004 percent.

“There is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century,” NASA said.

ESA’s Planetary Defence Office has reduced the probability of an impact even more, to 0.001 percent.

“Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now fallen from Level 3 to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale and no longer requires significant attention,” the ESA said.

The agency said that it is normal for impact probabilities to be initially overestimated, as additional information always narrows down the precise object trajectory.

“The rise and fall of this object’s impact risk has followed a well understood pattern,” the ESA added.

However, the more detailed observations have now increased the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the moon in 2032. That probability is currently 1.7 percent, NASA said. 

According to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the asteroid will be observable through early 2025 April, after which it will become too faint to be seen from Earth until 2028.

The James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe the asteroid in March to better determine its size. The asteroid will not come within deep space radar range until 2032, the IAWN said.

The Associated Press contributed to this article.

From NTD News