The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on May 25 released its forecasts for this year’s Atlantic, Central, and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons.
NOAA has two hurricane centers to cover different parts of the world.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), which is based in Miami, Florida, is responsible for tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean north of the Equator, including the Gulf of Mexico, while storms west of 140º W longitude and east of 180º W, are monitored by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
High Chance That El Nino Will Affect Summer Weather Patterns
The NOAA is implementing a series of upgrades and improvements this summer and will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20 percent.The agency said that the increase in computing capability would enable it to improve and run more complex forecast models, including significant model upgrades this hurricane season.
“Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo.
Hurricane seasons normally vary over these three basins, with the storm risk in the Atlantic and Central Pacific basins lasting from June 1 to Nov. 30, while the Eastern North Pacific Basin season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30.
The Atlantic region has the highest odds of a near-normal season, but both Pacific basins have odds favoring an above-average season, which is very typical of the effects of El Niño this summer.
The pattern is defined by changes in typical sea surface temperature and precipitation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can influence weather and climate patterns across the United States and worldwide.
Eastern Atlantic, Central Pacific Expect More Storms in 2023
Meanwhile, the NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Eastern Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 55 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.At least 14 to 20 named storms are expected to come from the region, while 7 to 11 could may reach hurricane status, with winds of 74 mph or higher, and of those 4 to 8 are expected to be major category 3+ hurricanes.
The outlook for the Central Pacific region shows a 50 percent chance for an above-normal hurricane season in 2023, with a 35 percent chance of near-normal activity, with only a 15 percent chance for the below-normal chance of a major storm.
“Hurricane season in the central Pacific region is expected to be slightly busier this year, compared to a normal season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.
“A key factor influencing our forecast is the predicted arrival of El Nino this summer, which typically contributes to an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the Pacific Ocean basin.”
The outlook does not predict whether or how many of these storm systems will affect Hawaii.
“The last few hurricane seasons have been pretty quiet around Hawaii, luring some folks to let their guard down. Now it’s looking like this season will be more active than the past several years,” said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
“It’s more important than ever to review your emergency plan and supply kit now, so you will be prepared for the next hurricane threat.”
The Eastern Pacific hurricane outlook has a 55 percent chance for an above-average season this year, with a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance for a below-normal season and at least 4 to 7 tropical cyclones to be expected.
