Schumer Predicts Democrats Will Hold Senate During Next Week’s Midterms

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaks at a news conference in the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington on Aug. 2, 2022. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) predicted that Democrats will hold the Senate after the midterms even as several forecasting models showed that Republicans’ chances have significantly increased in recent days.

“It’s tight,” Schumer told The Associated Press Thursday, adding, “I believe Democrats will hold the Senate and maybe even pick up seats.”

Analytics website FiveThirtyEight and poll aggregator RealClearPolitics on Wednesday and Thursday showed that Democrats’ chances of retaking the upper congressional chamber have dwindled. RealClearPolitics predicted that Republicans could even take 54 seats to Democrats’ 46 seats next Tuesday, while FiveThirtyEight shifted its model in favor of Republicans for the first time in months.

While campaigning in his home state of New York, Schumer’s forecast comes as Democrats face headwinds ahead of the contest. Republicans have gained momentum as they work to flip control of the 50–50 Senate and House, where Democrats have a slim majority.

GOP candidates have targeted President Joe Biden’s flagging approval ratings as well as soaring inflation and troubling signs brewing in the U.S. economy. Historically, the party in the White House often loses congressional seats during the midterms.

Democrats, meanwhile, have lost some of their momentum that they had picked up over the summer. Following the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade in June, top Democrats, Biden, and mainstream media outlets went on an all-out blitz to claim that Americans should vote for Democratic candidates because they would promote abortion access, although many Democrat-controlled states already have such laws on the books.

Not ‘Slam Dunks’

In the interview, Schumer told AP that he’s counting on strong voter turnout and a final get-out-the-vote push to keep the majority in the 50–50 Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris can break a tie.

“I don’t want to give the illusion that these are all slam dunks,” Schumer said in reference to Senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona.

(Left) Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz hosts a safer streets community discussion at Galdos Catering and Entertainment in Philadelphia on Oct. 13, 2022. (Mark Makela/Getty Images); (Right) Pennsylvania's Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman speaks to supporters gathered in Dickinson Square Park in Philadelphia on Oct. 23, 2022. Kriston Jae Bethel/AFP via Getty Images

“The fact that we’re in the ballpark and our Democratic candidates are defying the political environment is a testament to a few things,” he said, adding that he believes the Republican candidates are “extreme.”

Voters, Schumer alleged, are also “seeing the Democrats are talking to them on issues they care about, and that we’ve accomplished a great deal on things.” He did not make any comments on what party might control the House.

Last week, however, Schumer told Biden in a hot-mic incident in New York that “the state where we’re going downhill is Georgia,” and “it’s hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker,” referring to the GOP nominee. “But our vote, our early turnout in Georgia is huge, huge.”

The longtime New York senator also asserted that a debate between Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz last week “didn’t hurt us too much.” During the debate, Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor and a recent stroke survivor, had to use closed-captioning to understand questions, often slurred his words, and made numerous incomprehensible statements.

In the House, numerous forecasters say that Republicans will handily take back the lower chamber. Tuesday’s election will determine control of Congress setting the course for legislation and Biden’s priorities for the remaining two years of his presidential term.

The midterms will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 8. The United States Election Project, which compiles data from states, shows that some 32 million people have either cast early, in-person ballots or returned mail-in ballots.

AP contributed to this report.