Russian Troops’ Death Toll in Ukraine War Surpasses Soviet-Afghan War, Study Finds

Workers and emergency ministry members remove the debris of a destroyed building where 63 Russian soldiers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike the previous day, in Makiivka, Ukraine, on Jan. 3, 2023. Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

The death toll among Russian soldiers as a result of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine has exceeded that of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, according to a new study.

Roughly 47,000 Russian troops are estimated to have died since Russia launched its “special military operation” in neighboring Ukraine in February 2022, according to the joint study conducted by journalists at the Russian independent news sites Meduza and Mediazona and statistician Dmitry Kobak from the University of Tübingen in Germany.

Researchers arrived at that figure using reports on published obituaries, mortality data from the Federal State Statistics Service, and extensive records from the National Probate Registry, according to Meduza.

Additionally, the research team was able to access a restricted but nonclassified database of inheritance cases, allowing them greater insight into the number of actual deaths stemming from the ongoing conflict.

While the rough estimate is 47,000, the researchers warn that the figure could actually be higher.

“We estimate that between 40,000 and 55,000 Russian men under the age of 50 died fighting in Ukraine by May 27, 2023,” the report says. “When factoring in the number of men wounded so seriously that they did not return to military service, Russia’s total casualty count rises to at least 125,000 soldiers, based on our calculations.”

That figure does not include Russian soldiers who are missing or were captured, or Ukrainian nationals fighting with Russian proxy forces based in Donetsk and Luhansk, the researchers said.

A Ukrainian soldier prepares a drone on the frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine on July 1, 2023. Libkos/AP Photo

Exact Numbers Still Unknown

“In 15 months of fighting (from February 24, 2022, to late May 2023), three times more Russian soldiers died in Ukraine than Soviet troops over 10 years of war in Afghanistan,” the study authors wrote. “Nine times more soldiers were killed in Ukraine than in the first Russian-Chechen War between 1994 and 1996. ”

The estimated numbers are similar to those published by the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense in February. At the time, officials estimated approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war.

A leaked assessment by U.S. officials pegged the number of Russian deaths at between 35,000 and 43,000 in the first year of the invasion, The New York Times reported, while a separate estimate, created by independent monitors collaborating with journalists at Mediazona and the BBC and using obituaries, put the figure lower at 27,000.

However, the exact numbers are unclear, and Russian authorities have only publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers since the invasion began.

Responding to the latest estimations on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters during a press conference that he had not yet seen the report on Russian deaths and declined to provide an updated accurate figure.

Members of Wagner group sit atop of a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023. Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

Senior Russian Military Leader ‘Dismissed’

Mr. Peskov also noted that the Kremlin had “stopped monitoring” the news site Meduza.

“The Defense Ministry gives the numbers, and they’re the only ones who have that prerogative,” Mr. Peskov said.

The latest report comes as a top Russian military official, Gen. Ivan Popov, allegedly claimed to have been dismissed from his post after complaining that the Russian defense ministry was failing to adequately support troops.

Gen. Popov, who was in command of forces in occupied southern Ukraine, said in a voice note posted to Telegram by Russian lawmaker Andrei Gurulyov that he had raised concerns about the “lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery,” before he was removed from his post, CNN reported.

“I also raised a number of other problems and expressed it all at the highest level frankly and extremely harshly,” Mr. Popov said in the message. “I had no right to lie, therefore, I outlined all the problematic issues that exist today in the army in terms of combat work and support.”

After raising his concerns, Mr. Popov claims to have been removed from his role at the direction of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Following the publication of the voice notes, a senior official of the pro-government United Russia party, Andrey Turchak, criticized Mr. Gurulyov for sharing what he said were private messages not intended to be shared with the public.

“General Popov’s statement was not public and was posted on closed chats of the commanders and troops of the 58th Army,” Mr. Turchak wrote on Telegram, the BBC reported.

“Let the fact that ... Gurulyov somehow got hold of this and made a political show out of it remain on his conscience,” Mr. Turchak said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.