Russian forces are reportedly advancing on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, having claimed victory in the nearby city of Soledar—assertions that have been denied by officials in Kyiv.
“We have made clear progress,” Igor Kimakovsky, a spokesman for the Moscow-backed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said on Jan. 12.
“Soledar is practically ours,” Kimakovsky said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.
He went on to claim that Russian forces had also made gains in the vicinity of Bakhmut and the nearby town of Avdiivka.
Russian forces deployed in the area include DPR militiamen and the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization directed by the Kremlin.
On Jan. 11, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, declared that Russian forces are in control of Soledar.
“I want to confirm the complete liberation ... of the territory of Soledar,” Prigozhin said in a statement.
Soledar and Bakhmut are located in the Donetsk region, which was annexed by Russia—along with three other regions—in September 2022.
Ukraine and its Western allies see the move as an illegal land grab, and Kyiv has vowed to recover the lost territories by force of arms.
Ukrainian officials have dismissed Russian claims of victory in Soledar as “propaganda,” saying the town’s fate remains undecided.
“The terrorist state and its propagandists are trying to pretend that part of our town of Soledar ... is some sort of Russian possession,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Jan. 11.
“Fighting [in Soledar] continues. The Donetsk theater of operations is holding.”
Known for its expansive salt mines, Soledar sits roughly five miles northeast of Bakhmut, a transport hub that Ukraine relies on to resupply its forces on the eastern front.
Moscow Reshuffles Commanders
On Jan. 11, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced sweeping changes to the command structure of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, now in its 11th month. According to a ministry statement, Gen. Valery Gerasimov has been named supreme commander of operations, replacing Gen. Sergey Surovikin.Under the new command structure, Surovikin—who was appointed to the post in October 2022—will return to his previous role as commander of Russian aerospace forces.
The ministry attributed its decision to the “broader scope” of current operations and the need for “closer coordination between military branches and services.”
The move also aims to improve “logistics support and the command effectiveness” of ongoing military operations in Ukraine, according to the ministry.
On Jan. 12, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the reshuffle is “related to the expanded scope of objectives that will be addressed.”
Gerasimov, who also has served as deputy defense minister, is said to be a master tactician who has written extensively on military strategy.
In September 2022, Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, told Time magazine that he had “learned from Gerasimov.” Describing Gerasimov as “the smartest of men,” Zaluzhny said he’s read “everything he ever wrote.”
In the recent shakeup, Shoigu also appointed Gen. Oleg Salyukov as commander of Russian ground forces and Col.-Gen. Alexey Kim as deputy chief of the armed forces.
Ukraine Conducts Drills Near Belarus
In a related development, the Ukrainian military reportedly is conducting drills in the country’s northwest near the border with Belarus, a key Russian ally.In October 2022, Moscow dispatched thousands of troops—and substantial amounts of military hardware—to Belarusian territory. Soon afterward, the Russian air force began staging regular patrol flights over the country’s 675-mile border with Ukraine.
Late last month, Belarusian officials stated that Russian-deployed Iskander missile systems and S-400 air-defense systems were up and running in Belarusian territory.
The stepped-up military cooperation has raised renewed concern that Belarus might be used as a staging ground for a Russian advance on Kyiv—as was seen in the opening weeks of the invasion.
The Ukrainian capital is only 95 miles south of the Belarusian border.
A Russian offensive from Belarus could potentially threaten the supply of weapons to Ukraine from neighboring Poland. It also would force Kyiv to divert badly needed resources away from the southern and eastern fronts, where fierce fighting continues.
“They can try, but we’re ready for them,” said one Ukrainian army colonel taking part in the military exercises near the border. “Every turn and every junction has been dug up.”
Belarus hasn’t played an active role in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, even as Russia and Belarus have been bound since 1999 by a “Union State” treaty aimed at bolstering economic and military ties between the two countries.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly said he has no intention of sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine to fight alongside their Russian counterparts.
On Jan. 12, a Russian delegation headed by Salyukov paid a visit to Belarus. During his visit, Salyukov was expected to inspect Russian forces deployed in the country, according to a Belarusian Defense Ministry statement.
