Moscow infuriated the West last month by formally annexing four regions of Ukraine—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—into the Russian Federation.
In the weeks since, it has ramped up its “special military operation” in Ukraine by calling up fresh troops, imposing martial law, and targeting Ukrainian energy facilities.
Ukraine’s allies have decried what they view as the illegal annexation of territory by Russia, and officials in Kyiv have repeatedly vowed to recover the four lost regions.
Yet despite Western outrage, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described the four regions as “indivisible parts of Russia,” saying on Oct. 18 that Moscow would ensure their security as it would any other part of Russian territory.
Mobilizing the Military
Following last month’s annexations, Moscow has stated that it would view any attack on the territories—by Ukrainian forces or others—as an attack on Russia itself.Reflecting the changed territorial circumstances, the annexations were preceded by Moscow’s call-up of 300,000 fresh army reservists to reinforce the roughly 1,100-kilometer frontline.
The mobilization has been largely portrayed by Western media outlets as unpopular, hasty, and beset with logistical problems, with thousands of fighting-age men in Russia fleeing abroad to escape the call-up.
“Newly called-up troops appear to lack sufficient training and motivation,” Akinci said. “They consist mainly of those who cannot evade conscription.”
Russian officials, including Putin, have admitted that “mistakes” were made in the initial phase of the mobilization process. However, according to Russian sources, 260,000 fresh troops have been called up so far.
“Some regions have already completed the process,” Peskov said on Oct. 21. “While in some regions, partial mobilization continues.”
When asked about media reports that newly conscripted troops were being sent to the front without adequate training, he said, “They will certainly be investigated.”
Targeting Infrastructure
Russia’s increasingly aggressive stance in recent weeks has also featured stepped-up attacks on power facilities inside Ukrainian territory, including the capital.According to officials in Kyiv, 30 percent to 40 percent of the country’s critical energy infrastructure has been damaged since Oct. 10, when Russia began launching wide-ranging attacks on Ukrainian power facilities.
The strikes, which have continued intermittently over the past two weeks, have resulted in rolling blackouts throughout the country.
While Moscow has stated that it’s using high-precision weapons to avoid civilian casualties, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as “terrorism.”
Kyiv and its allies have also accused Russia of using Iranian-built “suicide drones,” which reportedly explode upon reaching their targets.
Both Moscow and Tehran deny Western claims that Iranian drones have been used in the strikes.
“Russia is trying to paralyze the entire country,” Akinci said. “By neutralizing energy infrastructure, it’s putting pressure on the general population in hopes that the [Kyiv] government will be toppled.”
While the strikes will serve to degrade the Ukrainian war effort, he noted that “they will also end up hurting the civilian populace.”
Stanislav Tkachenko, an adjunct professor at the University of Bologna’s political and social sciences department, attributed the shift in Russian tactics to Ukrainian victories in the field and mounting public frustration in Russia.
“Since early September, Russian public opinion has shown growing dissatisfaction with how the special military operation is being handled,” Tkachenko, who specializes in EU–Russia relations, told The Epoch Times.
He went on to note that the first wave of strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure came two days after the Oct. 8 bombing of Russia’s Kerch Bridge, which links mainland Russia to the Crimean Peninsula.
“Moscow views the bridge as a key infrastructural corridor into Crimea,” Tkachenko said. “Any attempt to cut this route would, of course, draw an immediate and decisive response.”
Martial Law
In a notable development, on Oct. 19, Putin issued a decree imposing martial law throughout the four newly acquired regions.At a meeting of Russia’s National Security Council held on the same day, he said the four regions were already under martial law, noting that the decree would provide a “legal basis” for keeping the state of emergency in place “under Russian sovereignty.”
The decree, which went into effect the following day, called for the creation of local “defense forces” and the expansion of powers afforded to Moscow-appointed regional governors.
Notably, the decree also put several of Russia’s southern regions, especially those that border Ukraine, in a state of “high alert.”
According to Tkachenko, the imposition of martial law means “the transition of command from civilian authorities to military administrations and the subordination of all institutions to provide security arrangements for people and infrastructure.”
He went on to attribute Putin’s decision to the expanding nature of the ongoing conflict, which, he said, “required changes to the command system of [Russian] military forces and the way territories in the war zone are managed.”
“Russia has reacted to the deteriorating security situation by mobilizing all available human and material resources and substantially increasing its forces in the conflict zone,” Tkachenko said.
‘Fog of War’
Recent escalations in the ongoing conflict haven’t been confined to the war zone–nor have they been limited to the Russian side. Along with the dramatic attack on the Kerch Bridge, recent weeks have also seen a spate of attacks on Russian gas pipelines.Late last month, the Nord Stream pipeline, which links gas fields in Russia to Northern Europe, was breached in four different areas. The incident prompted a flurry of recriminations and official probes launched by European governments.
In a less widely reported incident, Russian authorities in mid-October arrested several people for allegedly trying to sabotage the TurkStream pipeline, which brings Russian natural gas to Turkey via the Black Sea.
While the Kremlin has blamed Ukrainian operatives for the latter attack, which reportedly occurred in Russian territory, the perpetrators of the Nord Stream attack remain unknown—at least to the public.
“The consensus in Russia is that the only logical beneficiary of these acts of sabotage ... is the U.S. government,” Tkachenko said. “For a decade, Washington has tried to monopolize the position for American liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Europe’s energy markets.”
“As of September 2022, that goal was fully achieved.”
Akinci was also quick to point out that, as a result of the Nord Stream pipeline closure, “Europe will be forced to buy more expensive LNG from the U.S.”
But given the “fog of war” that the conflict has generated, he said, “I don’t think we can know who was ultimately responsible.”
On Oct. 14, Swedish authorities abruptly halted joint investigations with Denmark and Germany into the incident, citing concerns over “national security.”
Tkachenko, for his part, criticized investigations by the Swedish, Danish, and German authorities, describing them as “nontransparent and entirely closed to Russian experts and the general public.”
On Oct. 21, Peskov said the truth about the Nord Stream incident would “surprise” Europeans if it were ever made public. He didn’t elaborate.
