The Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary presents drastically different stories for both major parties.
The Democrats are united with Josh Shapiro, who is the state’s attorney general and is running unopposed.
The Republicans feature a crowded field, Doug Mastriano, a Donald Trump endorsee, leading polls by double digits ahead of the primary election on May 17.
Pennsylvania voters head to the polls on May 17 to determine who will meet in the general election in November to replace term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf (D).
The former president endorsed Mastriano on May 14, calling him “a fighter like few others who has been with me right from the beginning, and now I have an obligation to be with him.”
In April, Trump unofficially announced and anti-endorsement of the race. Telling his followers not to vote for Bill McSwain.
McSwain served as the top federal prosecutor in Philadelphia for three years while Trump was president. He frequently promoted that connection on the campaign trail and sought the coveted Trump endorsement.
Trump decided otherwise, pointing out that McSwain did not investigate the claims of widespread election fraud after Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election.
“One person in Pennsylvania who I will not be endorsing is Bill McSwain for governor. He was the U.S. Attorney who did absolutely nothing on the massive election fraud that took place in Philadelphia and throughout the commonwealth,” Trump said in a statement.
“Do not vote for Bill McSwain, a coward, who let our country down. He knew what was happening and let it go.”
On May 15, an Emerson College poll of 1,000 Republican primary voters conducted from May 14 to May 15 showed Mastriano in first with 34 percent support followed by U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta (22 percent), McSwain (12 percent), businessman Dave White (9 percent), and Charlie Gerow (3 percent).
Undecided voters account for 15 percent of the survey.
When they were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, Mastriano’s backing rose to 42 percent followed by Barletta at 24 percent.
“Among those who have already voted, Mastriano has 13 percent, but his support rises to 37 percent of those who plan to vote on election day,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“His opponent Barletta is getting about an equal share with 25 percent of the early vote and 21 percent of the election day voters.”
Mastriano is the opposite of McSwain, Trump believes.
“There is no one in Pennsylvania who has done more, or fought harder, for election integrity than state Senator Doug Mastriano,” Trump wrote.
“He has revealed the deceit, corruption, and outright theft of the 2020 Presidential Election, and will do something about it.”
Mastriano was outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 and was subpoenaed by the U.S. House committee investigating the riots.
If elected, Mastriano has said he would move forward with an initiative requiring residents to re-register to vote.
Not long after taking office as a state senator, Mastriano introduced legislation calling for a six-week ban on abortion. He has said he would not permit exceptions for rape, incest, or the mother’s health.
Mastriano has spent a fraction of money on his campaign compared to several of his opponents, and he is fighting an establishment worried that his views are too far to the right.
On May 15, the Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs joined a last-second effort to boost Barletta.
Commonwealth Partners spent approximately $13 million promoting McSwain. On May 15, the organization encouraged McSwain and White to withdraw from the race and give Barletta their stamp of approval.
“It’s become abundantly clear in recent days that nominating Lou Barletta for governor is Republicans’ best chance to defeat Josh Shapiro in November,” Commonwealth Partners president and CEO Matt Brouillette said in a statement.
Campaign manager James Fitzpatrick responded by saying that McSwain “is the only candidate who can beat Josh Shapiro.”
“Anyone who wants to ensure a Republican victory in November should vote Bill McSwain for governor,” Fitzpatrick said.
On May 12, Pennsylvania State Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman called off his gubernatorial bid and supported Barletta.
“I called Lou yesterday and told him it was his last chance to get out of the race and support me,” Corman said with a laugh during a May 12 press conference. “It didn’t quite go that way. But since I got in this race seven months ago, the overriding discussion was the Republican Party has a lot of good candidates, but we need to coalesce around one candidate and over time, obviously, that hasn’t happened.”
Corman intended to drop out in April, but he remained in the race because of Trump’s urging.
At the May 12 press conference, he encouraged other candidates to follow his lead, step away from the race, and back Barletta so Pennsylvania can elect a Republican “who can beat” the Democratic nominee in the general election.
As a member of Congress from 2011 to 2019, Barletta was among the first elected officials to publicly endorse Trump during the 2016 GOP presidential primary.
Trump backed Barletta in the 2018 Senate race. Barletta lost to Sen. Bob Casey (D) in the general election.
Barletta held a primary election eve event in Wilkes-Barre Township and said that Trump made the wrong decision backing Mastriano.
“Well, he was wrong,“ Barletta said. ”I certainly will take his endorsement on Wednesday after I win the primary on Tuesday.
“I think the most important factor is that I can win in November,” Barletta added. “It doesn’t matter if you win a primary but if you can’t beat Josh Shapiro. Josh Shapiro will then become our next governor, I think I give us the best chance.”
Shapiro will be armed with a deep chest of money to combat whoever he faces. He entered 2022 with $13.4 million in his campaign account. That set a Pennsylvania record for a candidate heading into an election year.
The Philadelphia native is already anticipating Mastriano as his opponent. He is airing television spots comparing Mastriano to Trump and asking Pennsylvanians if they really want another Trump.
“I think it’s pretty clear he’s going to be the nominee,” Shapiro said.
“He’s ahead in every single poll, ahead by a comfortable margin, and we think there’s a clear contrast in this race, and we want to make sure we’re out in front highlighting those differences and getting a jump on the general election.”
