Ohio State Sen. Matt Dolan, a Republican, announced on Jan. 17 that he will seek to unseat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in 2024.
The 2024 bid will be Dolan’s second attempt to join the echelons of the U.S. Senate. Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, lost the GOP nomination in 2022 by Sen. J. D. Vance (R-Ohio).
“A lot can change in 30 years, but in that time, Sherrod Brown’s blind loyalty to his party has remained the same,” Dolan said of the career Democrat in a post on Twitter announcing his bid. “I have a record of conservative, results-driven leadership. As Ohio’s next U.S. Senator, I will place the needs of our state first.”
Dolan emphasized the importance of border security and protecting the police in a statement attached to the announcement.
“Ohioans want security, not a federal government that opens our borders, contributes to inflation, and demonizes our police,” he wrote. “Ohioans want a problem solver who has successfully faced big challenges impacting our quality of life, not the political blame game that lacks common-sense solutions. I have a proven conservative record of success that has yielded results for Ohio families, workers, and businesses.”
Key Battleground State
At the turn of the 21st century, Ohio was seen as a crucial battleground state.Though the state voted twice for former President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, the state then turned around and voted for former President Barack Obama twice in 2008 and 2012.
However, since former President Donald Trump’s revival of populism, the heartland of the Rust Belt has seen a substantial rightward shift.
In 2012, Obama narrowly pulled the state with 50.67 percent of the popular vote.
Then in 2016, the state went red, voting 51.31 percent for Trump.
Despite Democrats’ hopes that the 2016 result might have been a one-off, the same scene played out in 2020. Trump expanded his lead over Democrats in the state by around two points, winning 53.27 percent of the popular vote.
Nowadays, Republicans seem to dominate Ohio politics.
In the state legislature, Republicans hold 67 out of 99 seats in the lower chamber and 26 out of 33 seats in the state senate.
Though Democrats hoped that former Rep. Tim Ryan (R-Ohio) could defeat Vance and make the state purple again, Vance handily defeated Ryan by 6.6 points, winning 53.3 percent of the popular vote in the state.
Though these signs appear optimistic for Republicans, it is unclear whether they will be able to extend their successes in the state to taking Brown’s seat.
Even in red strongholds like West Virginia, Democrats like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) have been able to persistently win reelection due to the steep advantage incumbents have. As a lawmaker who Ohioans have known for decades, unseating him could be harder than Republicans hope.
In 2018, an election season that saw heavy GOP losses, Brown almost perfectly mimicked Vance’s results, winning reelection with 53.4 percent of the popular vote. Republican challenger Jim Renacci received only 46.6 percent of the vote.
As one of the most anticipated races of 2024, Dolan is only the first contender in a race that will likely become crowded with contestants. It remains to be seen if Republicans can mount a successful challenge and overcome Brown’s incumbent advantage.
Even if Brown holds his seat in 2024, the race is likely to be a tough one for Democrats.
Practically every single Republican up for reelection hails from a safely red state. But a slew of swing-state Democrats will face tough battles to hold their seats.
Brown did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
