Real Estate Professionals in Southwest Border Cities Expect Better Market in 2025

An American and Texas flag are seen flying in front of the skyline of El Paso and Ciudad Juarez in El Paso, Texas, on Sept. 23, 2022. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

As the United States anticipates significant changes at its borders starting in January, some real estate professionals are expressing optimism about the housing markets in southwest border cities in the coming year.

In fiscal year 2024, border authorities apprehended 2.13 million illegal immigrants at the U.S.–Mexico border, down from 2.47 million apprehended during fiscal year 2023, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data.

With President-elect Donald Trump vowing to secure the southern border and deport illegal immigrants—particularly those with criminal records—Shy Rodriguez, a realtor in El Paso, Texas, said she believes that border cities will become safer. Rodriguez is also president of the Greater El Paso Association of Realtors.

Like much of the rest of the nation, the El Paso real estate market has experienced low inventory and higher price gains, even as the city remains a key crossing point for illegal immigrants, Rodriguez told The Epoch Times.

For many of her clients, the lower cost of buying a home in the area outweighs concerns about its proximity to the border.

The median sales price of a home in El Paso was $255,000 in November, according to real estate website Redfin.

Clients are also “attracted to the weather, the slower pace of life, and the friendliness of the people here,” Rodriguez said.

She noted that the area has a strong military community, with Fort Bliss army base located nearby.

Meanwhile, she said that after the presidential election, “expectations and hopes” have risen.

“I do think things are going to change in January,” she said.

“The majority of our citizens will feel even more safer than before, due to the fact that President Trump is set to deport the illegal criminals that are currently living freely among us in these cities.”

With more confidence in the incoming administration, Rodriguez is predicting a healthy market in 2025.

Donna Collins is a real estate agent in Green Valley, Arizona, and president of the Green Valley Sahuarita Association of Realtors. Her territory extends from Green Valley, about 40 miles north of the Mexican border, all the way down to the border.

With a population of almost 23,000, a warm climate, and an abundant water supply from the Santa Cruz River, Green Valley has become a popular destination.

The median home price in Green Valley was $275,000 in November, according to Redfin.

Collins predicts a significant positive shift in the housing market in 2025 and beyond.

“The housing market will open up to more people to be able to afford to buy a home. The climate is changing to expand that pathway to home ownership,” she said.

The U.S. housing market had been moderate in 2024, with the average home price rising 2.5 percent, according to Zillow, and total home sales forecast to drop 0.1 percent.

In its latest housing forecast, Realtor.com predicts “significant shifts” in the housing market during Trump’s second term.

A Dec. 4 report from Realtor.com says that many of the business-friendly policies Americans saw in Trump’s first term—including tax cuts, deregulation, and other economic growth-oriented measures—could return in 2025, potentially having a big impact on everything from mortgage rates to new home construction.

The report predicts that the median home price will rise by 3.7 percent next year, on top of this year’s 4 percent increase, along with a modest 1.5 percent gain in home sales compared to this year.

However, the report says that if Trump “manages to deliver strong economic growth that boosts incomes,” it could make homes more affordable.

At the same time, the tax cuts Trump has promised could increase disposable income for American families and boost their purchasing power.

Ardovino's Desert Crossing Restaurant in Sunland Park, New Mexico. Mary Prenon/The Epoch Times

Life on the Border

Robert Ardovino has owned and operated a restaurant in Sunland Park, New Mexico, which directly borders Mexico, for more than 25 years. He said illegal crossings have been a source of constant frustration for him, although he hasn’t been fearful.

“It’s been more of an annoyance,” he told The Epoch Times. “I’ve had my fence clipped with wire cutters 12 times in the last four weeks. It’s irritating, because I just want to keep people from running through the middle of my property.”

Ardovino’s Desert Crossing restaurant has been in his family since 1949. The border wall is clearly visible from his property, with an expanse of desert lying in-between. Many of the homes in the vicinity of the restaurant are also protected by high fences and barbed wire.

Ardovino said he has not experienced issues with break-ins or property damage. “In all of the years I’ve spent here, people trying to get into the U.S have been quiet and looking to stay out of trouble,” he said. “They just want to move through and keep going.

“It’s not unusual to see helicopters circling around here, but fortunately, there have been no major issues.

“It’s definitely an active place here, but that’s just everyday life on the border.”

Ardovino gave kudos to Border Patrol for its constant surveillance of the area. “They have built a good relationship with local law enforcement, and both are very vigilant about who’s supposed to be here and who shouldn’t,” he said.

Heading into the new year, Ardovino hopes the border situation gets better so he doesn’t have to spend time and money fixing his fences so often.

Janet de Acevedo Macdonald, assistant manager of Bisbee’s Visitor Center, lives in Palominas, Arizona, situated just about 4 miles from the Mexican border.

“I haven’t witnessed any incidents. Of course we’re not a huge port like Nogales, but the U.S. Customs and Border Protection have been doing an excellent job here,” she told The Epoch Times. “We’re a small, quiet community here, and our situation is very different from what may be happening at other border areas.”

Nogales, Arizona, is a city of more than 20,000 directly bordering Nogales, Mexico; the latter of which the U.S. State Department lists as an area to avoid, due to high crime and kidnappings.

The Tucson border sector covers most of the state of Arizona, from the New Mexico state line to the Yuma county line. The area encompasses a total of 262 border miles and is also one of the busiest sectors in the country for both illegal migrant apprehensions and marijuana seizures. There are currently about 3,700 agents working the nine stations in Tucson Sector, according to CBP.

While the areas in which Ardovino and Macdonald live have a heavy Border Patrol and local law enforcement presence, an inspector general report released last year by the Department of Homeland Security found that 88 percent of border stations were understaffed during surges in illegal immigration.

Shy Rodriguez, president of the Greater El Paso Association of Realtors. Mary Prenon/The Epoch Times

Call for Immigration Law Reform

Rodriguez said that the illegal immigrants who cross over illegally do not tend to stay in El Paso. “This is not the place they want to be—they just move on,” she said.

Meanwhile, she called on the government to reform immigration laws. “This chaotic way of them coming in through open borders without any vetting process is clearly not working,” she said.

“We understand that they’re wanting a more stable life in the United States because of the instability in their own countries, but there has to be a process in place for them to start a new life here and that they’re willing to abide by in order to achieve the opportunity to live here.”

She noted that data and reports from some city leaders suggested that costs related to illegal immigrants are “quite high and are affecting their budgets.”

Although current encounters have declined, the total number of encounters at the southwest border over the past four fiscal years is estimated to be around 7.3 million.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimated in its March 2023 report that the gross cost—including educational, medical, law enforcement, and welfare expenditures—of illegal immigration for American taxpayers in 2022 stood at $181 billion, with approximately $66.4 billion in federal spending and $115.6 billion in state and local spending.

When the taxes contributed by illegal immigrants are taken into account, “the net cost of illegal immigration to U.S. taxpayers is now $150.7 billion,” the report reads.

According to the report, the cost of illegal immigration in California alone reached $22.8 billion in 2022. The state leads the United States with its population of illegal immigrants, at more than 3.2 million.

Other states with high illegal immigration costs include Texas ($9.94 billion), New York ($7.4 billion), Florida ($5.9 billion), and New Jersey ($3.9 billion).