Potential Third-Party Candidate Could Swing 2024 Election in Trump’s Favor

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the Moms for Liberty Joyful Warriors National Summit at the Philadelphia Marriott Downtown in Philadelphia on June 30, 2023. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

A nonprofit political organization with anonymous backers is seeking to field a third-party candidate for the 2024 presidential election.

This could help swing results in former President Donald Trump’s favor, despite outward suggestions that the group is against the former president winning a second term.

The organization, called No Labels, is a 13-year-old nonprofit group that is establishing the groundwork to run an alternative candidate for the 2024 presidential race if the election turns into a rematch between Trump and Biden.

The organization’s leadership is composed of both Republicans and Democrats.

“We are preparing for the possibility of nominating a candidate. We have not yet committed to do so. We will run ONLY under the proper environmental conditions, which must be met for us to proceed,” the group said on its website.

As to what those conditions are, No Labels has given a few hints.

In an interview with NBC News, Benjamin Chavis, former executive director of the NAACP and a national co-chair of No Labels, said the group will end its effort for an alternative candidate if, by next spring, polling shows that President Joe Biden is “way, way out ahead” of Trump.

No Labels also told Politico that it will exit the presidential race if the GOP nominates any candidate other than Trump.

The names of donors to No Labels are kept a secret, with the organization insisting that revealing the names would subject funders to potential scrutiny and intimidation, according to The Wall Street Journal. By law, No Labels is not obliged to publicly reveal its donors. The nonprofit reportedly has a budget of $70 million.

Possible ‘Spoiler’ Campaign

Despite No Labels being against the former president, a candidate from the group could swing the presidential race in critical areas, potentially in favor of Trump.

The No Labels candidate could also end up creating a situation where no presidential candidate is able to secure 270 electoral votes. This would allow state delegations of the House to choose the winner of the presidential election, potentially favoring the GOP nominee.

Chavis insisted in his NBC interview that “No Labels is not and will not be a spoiler in favor of Donald Trump in 2024.”

A recent Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll reported by The Hill revealed that 45 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump if the 2024 election were held at the time of the poll, a 6-point lead over the 39 percent who said they would support Biden.

Historically, third-party presidential candidates have not performed well. However, there have been occasions when such candidates were cited as having taken away votes from a popular candidate. For instance, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is seen as having cost Democrat Al Gore his 2000 presidential election.

In the 2024 election, a name popping up as a potential presidential candidate for No Labels is Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin from West Virginia, who has said he is open to considering a run for the White House.

A third-party centrist candidate like Manchin could potentially take away considerable votes from Biden.

Group’s Activity So Far

No Labels has qualified for ballots in Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and Alaska, The Wall Street Journal reported. The group intends to be qualified in 20 states by the end of the year.

Democrat supporters are wary of growing voter interest in third-party candidates because of the impact of such candidates in the 2016 and the 2020 presidential races.

In the 2016 election, 6 percent of voters cast their votes for third-party candidates, a share that fell to just 2 percent in 2020, per an analysis by NBC News. Trump’s vote share remained almost the same in 2016 and 2020. However, Biden was able to secure 2 to 3 percent more votes in the 2020 election when the voting share for third-party candidates fell.

The Democrat Party is already taking steps to counter No Labels. In Arizona, the state’s Democrat Party filed a complaint in the Maricopa County Superior Court “to protect Arizona voters from dark money interests” like No Labels, whom they accuse of “engaging in a shadowy strategy to gain ballot access,” according to a March 20 statement.

No Labels’ founding chairman is former Sen. Joe Lieberman, who began his political career as a Democrat but later became an independent.

It has three national co-chairs: former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican; former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory, also a Republican; and Chavis.