Commentary
Will Xi Jinping ever step down as leader? The question has haunted Chinese politics ever since 2018, when he abolished the term limits for the communist regime’s presidency and vice-presidency, to become the first leader to secure a third term in 2022.
Recently, the prospect of Xi’s imminent retirement gained fresh traction on social media following a rumor that Xi had floated the notion himself, along with speculation amongst China watchers that the regime’s recent military purges indicate that Xi is losing grip on power,
According to NewsInsight, the host received unverified information that, while visiting the southwestern Guizhou Province in March, Xi praised the cabinet created in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2022, saying, the selection can “ensure the stability of the [CCP’s] collective leadership even if I retire due to health reasons.”
This raises the question: Will Xi retire at the CCP’s Fourth Plenary Session, which will likely be held this year?
Based on recent events, I believe this possibility cannot be ruled out.
One of the most significant signs pointing to a possible decision by Xi to retire was the rare absence of a military vice-chairman when Xi met with representatives of the military in Kunming, the capital of the southwestern Yunnan Province.
According to the CCP protocol, when Xi—as chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)—inspects the military, a vice-chairman usually accompanies him, with another vice-chairman staying in Beijing to emphasize authority and ensure preparedness for emergencies.
In the past three years, Xi has been accompanied by at least one CMC vice-chairman during his military inspections.
For instance, on Dec. 4, 2024, CMC vice-chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong were among those who accompanied Xi on an inspection of the Beijing Information Support Forces; on Dec. 20, 2024, He accompanied Xi to inspect the Macau troops; on Jan. 24, Zhang and He both accompanied Xi on an inspection of the Northern Theater Command; and on March 20, Zhang accompanied Xi to inspect troops stationed in Changsha, the capital of the southern Hunan Province.
However, according to Chinese state media Xinhua agency, during Xi’a visit to Kunming in March, both Zhang and He were notably absent.
This absence could indicate that Xi has lost control over the military. If he loses control over the military, it suggests he may have lost control over the overall power structure of the CCP, and his departure from office could be imminent.
On Feb. 23, China affairs commentator Cai Shenkun, who previously broke stories of the removals of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Adm. Miao Hua from their posts, revealed [Source] that a well-connected individual within Chinese political circles told him that since the CCP’s all-military political work conference in Yan’an City in 2024, Xi’s power has been significantly weakened.
Though Xi hasn’t made an official announcement to retire, real power in the CCP seems to have shifted away from him.
Based on the current situation, Xi could formally announce his retirement at the Fourth Plenary Session, as signals—if they are true—indicate that he won’t delay much longer.
Some high-level sources stated that military power has already been transferred to Zhang, and Xi is merely the titular chairman of the CMC.
The absence of both military vice-chairmen during Xi’s recent meeting in Kunming somewhat supports this theory.
However, other analysts say the possibility of Xi retiring at the Fourth Plenary Session is low. Instead, they suggest that Xi might gradually arrange for a transition in the coming years, perhaps before the 21st Congress in 2027, rather than suddenly announcing his retirement now.
If discussions on power adjustments emerge at the Fourth Plenary Session, they are more likely to focus on strengthening the “collective leadership” mechanism rather than directly announcing Xi’s retirement.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
