Why the Chinese Regime’s Purge of 2 Generals Is Linked to Its Taiwan Invasion Plans

China's Minister of National Defence Li Shangfu delivers a speech during the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore on June 4, 2023. (Roslan Rahman/AFP via Getty Images)

Commentary

Former Chinese Defense Ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe have been expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the military and stripped of their general titles. Both were charged with allegedly violating political discipline, refusing to cooperate with investigators, and offering and accepting bribes.

A former CCP navy commander said that the real reason for the purge was that both Mr. Li and Mr. Wei didn’t want to go to war with Taiwan. According to his sources, the CCP’s soldiers are now so focused on political study that officers spend their days playing poker and basketball to kill time because military training has stalled.

Military Purge Is Common in Communist Countries

Guo Jun, editor-in-chief of The Epoch Times Hong Kong edition, said the main charge against Mr. Li and Mr. Wei is that they “betrayed the trust of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission.”

“This Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission actually refer to [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping. Indeed, both of them were once Xi Jinping’s most trusted people in the military,” she said.

“The communist regime is built on violence, with its power growing out of the barrel of a gun. Consequently, the more intense the power struggle, the more severe the purges within the army, with Joseph Stalin being the most notorious example. The current military purge in the CCP’s army is as intense as it was during Stalin’s era.”

Aversion to War

Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel of the CCP’s navy who fled to the United States in 2016, said that Mr. Li and Mr. Wei were expelled from the Party and the military because they were unwilling to embark on a war with Taiwan.

“They were not convicted solely because of corruption in the army. Corruption in the military is widespread, affecting the management of personnel, finances, and resources. The logistics department, notorious for corruption, has not seen any high-profile arrests,” Mr. Yao said.

He said he was told by his sources in the Chinese military that the army’s Rocket Force is particularly fearful of war.

“If the CCP decides to attack Taiwan, its navy and air force are no match for the United States and Japan, leaving the Rocket Force as its ultimate weapon. The U.S. military would first target and aim to cripple the Rocket Force to eliminate this threat,” he said.

“Two years ago, the United States released a detailed 255-page report on the Rocket Force, highlighting its deterrent capabilities. After strategic discussions and exercises in 2019, it was concluded that an attack on Taiwan was not feasible, with 80–90 percent of Rocket Force generals opposing the move.

“The charges against Mr. Li and Mr. Wei include political issues, primarily their lack of alignment with Xi Jinping’s strategy to unify Taiwan by force.”

According to Mr. Yao’s sources, Xi could launch a war to unify Taiwan by force between 2025 and 2027 or even earlier.

“Recently, the CCP’s marine police force intercepted and seized a Taiwanese fishing boat in the waters off Kinmen, marking a significant escalation,“ Mr. Yao said. ”This move is part of a larger strategy: first, to impose a blockade. The blockade itself is not the ultimate goal but a tactic to gradually tighten the encirclement and provoke Taiwan.

“Second, by pushing into areas 48 nautical miles, 24 nautical miles, and eventually 12 nautical miles from Taiwan, the CCP aims to force a response.

“The CCP is waiting for Taiwan to fire the first shot. Therefore, the situation is becoming increasingly urgent, and Taiwan faces mounting pressure.”

Mr. Yao said that the so-called anti-corruption campaign in the military is coming to an end because Xi needs to prepare for war.

“Xi Jinping believes the opportunity to attack Taiwan has come. In the military, obedience is a duty. Once a war begins, failure to follow orders results in strict punishment under military law. Despite many not wanting to go to war, opposition is futile, given the current circumstances. On the surface, people obey the central authorities, but deep down, they harbor resentment against them,” the former lieutenant colonel said.

Intensive Political Study

Mr. Yao said he was told by his sources that the CCP military is conducting rigorous political study sessions to allegedly brainwash soldiers to fight.

“In the past, the ratio of military training to political work was 70 to 30, with 70 percent devoted to military training and 30 percent to political work. Today, military training has largely given way to political study, which focuses on unifying thought and aligning with the CCP Central Committee. Political documents are constantly being issued from the top, leaving little time for military training,” he said.

A friend of Mr. Yao’s who’s a military officer told him that the staff at the military headquarters are now very relaxed, while the officers in the political department are overwhelmed with work. The military headquarters staff spend their days playing poker and basketball because military training has reached a standstill, he said. In other words, the entire military is well aware of the stance of the Central Military Commission, which emphasizes political study and strictly implements the directives of the Party Central Committee, focusing primarily on political matters, he said.

China observer Shi Shan, a senior writer and contributor to the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times, said that a similar situation has happened several times in the CCP’s army.

“They often get into this kind of struggle: Which is more important, politics or military training? During the Cultural Revolution, the CCP cracked down on many high-ranking generals, such as Luo Ruiqing. When the Red Guards went to arrest him, they claimed that he only emphasized military training and not politics. He was beaten so severely that he jumped from a building [in a suicide attempt] and became crippled,” Mr. Shi said.

He said that even though the CCP focuses more on politics than military training, this does not prevent it from starting a war very soon.

“During the Cultural Revolution, despite the political turmoil, the CCP still engaged in conflicts such as the battle on Zhenbao Island. The political will of the top echelons of the CCP is paramount,” he said.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.