Commentary
Contemplating who would replace Chinese leader Xi Jinping and what would happen after he dies or steps down is speculative, of course, but necessary, given China’s position as one of the dominant countries on Earth. Although China’s rise as an emerging power in recent times is new, the country’s experience dealing with the exit of an all-powerful supreme leader isn’t.
Will History Repeat Itself in China?
That was certainly the case with Chairman Mao Zedong, who ruled the People’s Republic of China with absolute and unrivaled power from 1949 to 1976. His political paranoia and crackpot ideas for industrialization and farming resulted in monstrous events in the country, from mass starvation to collapsing productivity and mass purges. His willingness to starve or kill tens of millions of his countrymen through man-made famines and other horrendous events—even plunging the country into civil war (carefully branded as “The Cultural Revolution”) to hold onto power—provided a stark warning to China that comes with one-man rule.When Mao finally died in 1976, the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) said no more to the one-man rule dictatorship that subjected the country to the whim, caprice, vision, or ambitions of a singular, unchallengeable potentate. Instead, the CCP established a rule-by-committee system in China. Leading by consensus brought a certain level of stability to the country because decisions were made not by one person but by many. That quickly led to the opening of China to the West, and the rest is history.
Safety in Ambiguity?
That brings us back to Xi, the most powerful leader in China since Mao, who, coincidentally, enjoys the same absolute power. In a series of deft and brutal moves, Xi successfully eliminated his political rivals and returned China once more to a one-man dictatorship with a lifetime appointment for himself in 2018.Today, at 71 years of age, Xi knows his time is limited. Recent but unproven rumors of Xi having suffered a stroke have prompted observers to contemplate his replacement. Given Xi’s power, influence, and vision of his rule over China and the country’s rise on the world stage, Xi’s departure would leave a wide chasm to fill.
If the CCP authorities have any ideas about a successor to Xi, they’re keeping tight-lipped about it. As murky as CCP politics are, it may be that Xi has no one in mind to replace him. Certainly, his former rivals in both the political and business realms—from the imprisonment of Bo Xilai to the reeducation of internet and media mogul Jack Ma—have been dealt with. Having a known replacement waiting in the wings could put Xi’s well-being in peril at the hands of his underling(s) or those who wish to remove him from power sooner rather than later. Xi is undoubtedly aware of this.
Healthy Today, Bolder Tomorrow?
A second factor in the possibility of succession is Xi’s health, which appears to be good, if not great. But as we all know, appearances aren’t always what they seem. A stroke event or a cancer diagnosis can happen to the healthiest-looking people, and Xi was a smoker for decades before he quit.But regardless of his health today, he has more yesterdays than tomorrows. When Xi does step down or dies in office, there is considerable speculation regarding what effect that transition will have on China and the rest of the world.
China occupies a central role in world affairs and is the driving force behind the economic and geopolitical realignment of the world into a more multipolar global order, or disorder, as the case may be. That trend shows no signs of reversing.
Would a post-Xi Jinping China continue its destructive growth policies and its “wolf warrior” foreign policy as it seeks to fulfill what it sees as its rightful claim to rule the world?
Given the CCP’s hubris and declarations, it would seem unlikely. What new CCP leader is willing to preside over the decline of the CCP’s power in the world?
A Return to Rule-by-Committee?
Would a potential new leader of China even be a single person? It may well be that the CCP returns to rule-by-committee, which defined the post-Mao era, to avoid the risks and volatility that one-man rule brings. Or will China’s next leader even come from the CCP? That’s a question that few are asking now, but perhaps more will be asking in the near future. In the meantime, it seems most probable that as Xi ages, he’ll grow bolder on the world stage, not less so.Because of digital technologies, Xi and the CCP have turned China into a massive surveillance society. Xi’s China is now an industrial-scale police state that can monitor people’s every activity, enforce laws, and arbitrarily and instantly punish lawbreakers. Xi has more control and power over the nation than Mao ever dreamed of. Would new leadership lessen the CCP’s grip over its people?
What Will the Next 10 Years of Xi’s Rule Bring China?
The China of the last 10 years of Mao’s life was deeply divided, was stripped of its culture, existed in profound poverty, closed off from the world, and, in many places, rebelled against the CCP.What will Xi’s next 10 years bring?
China faces several internal problems that won’t be solved in a decade and may, in some ways, resemble the last 10 years of Mao’s rule. Obviously, the technological state of modern China is light years beyond the China of the 1960s and ’70s, but there may be some similarities as well.
For instance, China is growing more divided, not less so, as the CCP continually picks economic winners and losers. It’s increasingly the people versus the Party, with rising dissension. For that reason, the CCP is trying to bring back some sense of unifying culture to a population that’s growing both more demoralized and cynical as both economic conditions and political oppression worsen.
If economic conditions continue to deteriorate, Xi, like Mao, may find himself closing off China from the world to hold onto power or facing a replacement sooner than he would like, in one fashion or another. Or, just as likely, he may commit China to a militaristic path across the Asia-Pacific region and even beyond. External conditions and internal pressures may persuade him to act while he still may.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
