President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping may not have agreed on much when they met in Bali this week. But they did agree that both sides would start talking again.
A U.S. military officer serving in the Pacific asked if this at least was a good thing.
Yes, it is better than a thermonuclear war, but not as important as one might think.
One reasonably asks how 40-plus years of unrestrained engagement and communication with China worked out.
There were basically no limits to our communications with China during that time—until the Trump administration came along.
During this multi-decade gabfest, the Chinese communists built a nation and a military that potentially can defeat us. That didn’t happen by accident. It was Beijing’s objective all along.
So if we start talking again, is this supposed to lead to improved Chinese behavior? If so, someone needs to explain how.
Will China give up on its goal of pushing us out of the region and ultimately dominating the United States? Unlikely. And nobody imagines these days it will lead to a liberalized China–as all the earlier talk and getting to know each other was supposed to do.
But at least it “stabilizes” the U.S.-China relationship, doesn’t it? No. That’s a fallback rationalization when you’ve achieved nothing much and are out of ideas. Sort of like claiming 20 years, $2 trillion, and thousands of casualties in Afghanistan were successful because the “homeland was never attacked.”
You see, China figured out a long time ago (as did many other countries) that if you really want to perplex the Americans, just don’t talk to them.
The Yankees will squirm and wonder what they did to get you mad at them.
And then they start making concessions and giving away things to get back on speaking terms.
There seems to be a sense on the U.S. side that if we aren’t talking, we will surely be fighting. An anthropologist might suggest this is also an American conceit that any problem can be resolved via dialogue.
So the Chinese are glad to let the Americans yap and to meet and talk about whatever (other than COVID-19 and fentanyl), and they might even get some “presents” to boot.
Washington thinks it’s progress, or at least not failing. But Beijing sees an ever-hopeful enemy always willing for one more round of talks. Meanwhile, China improves its position and prepares for the day that kinetic action comes, assuming that it’s even necessary.
At most, this latest in Bali is a tactical pause—to lull the Americans into thinking some deal might be cut and to ease up on China.
If you pay attention, the Chinese communists are not hard to figure out. But neither are the Americans.
Finally, it’s worth looking back a few months and considering what we’re missing by not talking with the Chinese communists.
When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) stopped talking to Team Biden last summer, miffed at Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, one observer looked through the list of things China canceled. This is what the meetings must have been like:
United States: Let’s talk about ways to reduce tensions and unexpected events.
China: Sure. Let’s start by you telling us all your plans, and then clear out of the South China Sea (and the Western Pacific) and don’t come back.
United States: Please take back your bad guys.
China: No.
United States: Let’s work together to lower crime.
China: Sure. Send us all the people who have taken refuge from the CCP in the United States, and then tell us all you know about our criminals and how you found out. And ignore the “overseas police station” we’ve set up in New York.
United States: Please stop sending us fentanyl and killing 100,000 Americans yearly.
China: What’s fentanyl?
United States: Reduce your emissions.
China: Sure, in 2087. In the meantime, you stop all energy production, give us clean tech IP, buy all our solar panels, wind turbines, etc., and hook them up to the internet grids with Chinese components.
Note to Washington: The Chinese are doing us a favor and helping us avoid our self-destructive behavior. Sometimes it’s good to keep one’s mouth shut.
