Trump and Taiwan: Is Chinese Military Prepared to Challenge US Policy?

Trump and Taiwan: Is Chinese Military Prepared to Challenge US Policy?
Two KH-6 Fast Attack Missile Boats sail in formation during a combat readiness exercise at the Zuoying Naval Base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on Jan. 9, 2025. I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images
Antonio Graceffo
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The U.S. State Department recently updated its online fact sheet on Taiwan, removing the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence.” The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has perceived this change as a significant shift in U.S. policy, leading to strong objections from Beijing.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that the United States has “gravely backpedaled” on its position regarding Taiwan, sending the wrong message to separatist forces on the island. In contrast, Taiwan’s government welcomed the update as a positive reflection of the close and amicable partnership between Taiwan and the United States.

The U.S. State Department described the revision as a routine update, reaffirming its commitment to the “One China” policy and opposing any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.

Beijing is especially cautious about changes to Washington’s Taiwan strategy, given that President Donald Trump’s administration is filled with China hawks, signaling a more confrontational U.S. stance. His key cabinet picks—such as national security adviser Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—have all taken strong anti-CCP positions, with Rubio even sanctioned by Beijing.

Trump’s aggressive economic stance, including proposed tariff increases on Chinese imports, could significantly impact China’s already struggling economy. Meanwhile, his national security team prioritizes countering the Chinese regime’s military ambitions, particularly regarding Taiwan. Beijing is particularly wary of Rubio’s strong support for Taiwan.

CCP leader Xi Jinping has stated that he would not rule out the use of force to seize Taiwan, raising questions about whether the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is capable of executing such an operation. Despite China’s rapid military modernization—including the world’s largest navy, strengthened air force, advanced missile capabilities, and cyber warfare tools—the RAND Corporation report titled “The Chinese Military’s Doubtful Combat Readiness“ challenges the idea that this makes China an imminent threat to the United States and its allies.

The report argues that the PLA remains primarily focused on maintaining CCP rule rather than preparing for high-intensity warfare. Its ability to function as a modern, combat-ready force is hindered by political control, recruitment difficulties, and structural inefficiencies.

While China’s arsenal includes stealth aircraft and hypersonic missiles, its real-world combat performance remains untested. History has shown that advanced weaponry alone does not guarantee battlefield success, raising doubts about the PLA’s capability to conduct complex joint operations in modern warfare.

A major obstacle to the PLA’s effectiveness is CCP political oversight, which prioritizes Party loyalty over combat readiness. Its dual-command structure, where political commissars share authority with military officers, hinders battlefield decision-making and limits operational flexibility.

With up to 40 percent of training time spent on political indoctrination rather than combat preparation, the PLA struggles to execute joint operations effectively. Layers of bureaucratic control further restrict commanders, requiring Party approval for most decisions and leaving little room for initiative or rapid response in battle.
Recruitment struggles further undermine the PLA’s modernization efforts, as the military fails to attract top-tier talent from China’s best universities despite targeting young graduates with science and engineering backgrounds. Corruption, forced conscription, evasion, and recruits refusing to serve after enlistment further weaken its ability to build an informatized, joint force capable of modern warfare. These challenges are compounded by the PLA’s rigid, approval-heavy system, which discourages initiative and critical thinking—qualities essential for officers and noncommissioned officers to operate effectively in complex, rapidly evolving battle environments.

This internal structure, combined with deep-seated corruption—including fraudulent procurement and mismanagement within China’s Rocket Force—has significantly weakened its operational readiness. Additionally, the PLA has not fought a war since 1979, raising doubts about its ability to conduct complex joint operations necessary for modern warfare.

The report also casts doubt on the Chinese regime’s ability to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan, despite warnings from some analysts that Beijing could gain a decisive military edge by 2027. While China continues to expand its military arsenal, the PLA faces major logistical and integration challenges, making a large-scale amphibious assault highly risky.

U.S. intelligence assessments suggest widespread corruption within China’s defense sector has forced Xi to focus more on internal military reforms than external conflicts. As China’s economy slows and domestic challenges mount, the PLA’s primary role may shift even further toward regime security rather than external military engagements.

Despite its weaknesses, the PLA should not be underestimated. China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and advances in hypersonic weaponry signal serious war preparations, but its approach to a Taiwan conflict may emphasize strategic coercion over total war. Instead of direct military confrontation with the United States, Beijing may rely on economic pressure, cyber warfare, and influence operations to assert its power. Regardless of the PLA’s capabilities, communist China remains the primary threat to the United States and Taiwan and cannot be ignored.

At the same time, Trump is the kind of president who will pursue U.S. foreign policy based on what he believes serves American interests, regardless of Beijing’s objections. This puts China in a difficult position—either stand and fight or acquiesce. As tensions over Taiwan escalate, the two countries are increasingly locked in a strategic standoff.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Antonio Graceffo
Antonio Graceffo
Author
Antonio Graceffo, Ph.D., is a China economy analyst who has spent more than 20 years in Asia. Graceffo is a graduate of the Shanghai University of Sport, holds an MBA from Shanghai Jiaotong University, and studied national security at American Military University.