From net zero to mass immigration and identity politics, the “expertocracy” elite is in alliance with the global technocratic elite against majority national sentiment. The COVID years gave the elites a valuable lesson in how to exercise effective social control, and they mean to apply it across all contentious issues.
The changes to global health governance architecture must be understood in this light. It represents the transformation of the national security, administrative, and surveillance state into a globalised biosecurity state. But they are encountering pushback in Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, and most recently Ireland. We can but hope that the resistance will spread to rejecting the WHO power grab.
“The pandemic agreement will not give WHO any power over any state or any individual, for that matter,” he said.
The Gostin, Klock, and Finch Paper
In the Hastings Center Report “Making the World Safer and Fairer in Pandemics,” published on Dec. 23, 2023, Lawrence Gostin, Kevin Klock, and Alexandra Finch attempted to provide the justification to underpin the proposed new IHR and treaty instruments as “transformative normative and financial reforms that could reimagine pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response.”The three authors decried voluntary compliance under the existing “amorphous and unenforceable” IHR regulations as “a critical shortcoming.” And they conceded that “while advocates have pressed for health-related human rights to be included in the pandemic agreement, the current draft does not do so.” Directly contradicting the DG’s denial as quoted above, they described the new treaty as “legally binding.” This is repeated several pages later:
“The best way to contain transnational outbreaks is through international cooperation, led multilaterally through the WHO. That may require all states to forgo some level of sovereignty in exchange for enhanced safety and fairness.”
The WHO as the World’s Guidance and Coordinating Authority
The IHR amendments will expand the situations that constitute a public health emergency, grant the WHO additional emergency powers, and extend state duties to build “core capacities” of surveillance to detect, assess, notify, and report events that could constitute an emergency.Under the new accords, the WHO would function as the guidance and coordinating authority for the world. The DG will become more powerful than the U.N. Secretary-General. The existing language of “should” is replaced in many places by the imperative “shall,” of nonbinding recommendations with countries will “undertake to follow” the guidance. And “full respect for the dignity, human rights and fundamental freedoms of persons” will be changed to principles of “equity” and “inclusivity” with different requirements for rich and poor countries, bleeding financial resources and pharmaceutical products from industrialised to developing countries.
The WHO is first of all an international bureaucracy and only secondly a collective body of medical and health experts. Its COVID-19 performance was not among its finest. Its credibility was badly damaged by tardiness in raising the alarm; by its acceptance and then rejection of China’s claim that there was no risk of human-to-human transmission; by the failure to hold China accountable for destroying evidence of the pandemic’s origins; by the initial investigation that whitewashed the origins of the virus; by flip-flops on masks and lockdowns; by ignoring the counterexample of Sweden that rejected lockdowns with no worse health outcomes and far better economic, social, and educational outcomes; and by the failure to stand up for children’s developmental, educational, social, and mental health rights and welfare.
The changes would confer extraordinary new powers on the WHO’s DG and regional directors and mandate governments to implement their recommendations. This will result in a major expansion of the international health bureaucracy under the WHO, such as new implementation and compliance committees; shifting the centre of gravity from the common deadliest diseases (discussed below) to relatively rare pandemic outbreaks (five including COVID-19 in the last 120 years); and giving the WHO authority to direct resources (money, pharmaceutical products, intellectual property rights) to itself and other governments in breach of sovereign and copyright rights.
Considering the impact of the amendments on national decision-making and mortgaging future generations to internationally determined spending obligations, this calls for an indefinite pause in the process until parliaments have done due diligence and debated the potentially far-reaching obligations.
Yet disappointingly, relatively few countries have expressed reservations and few parliamentarians seem at all interested. We may pay a high price for the rise of careerist politicians whose primary interest is self-advancement, ministers who ask bureaucrats to draft replies to constituents expressing concern that they often sign without reading either the original letter or the reply in their name, and officials who disdain the constraints of democratic decision-making and accountability. Ministers relying on technical advice from staffers when officials are engaged in a silent coup against elected representatives give power without responsibility to bureaucrats while relegating ministers to being in office but not in power, with political accountability sans authority.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian and UK Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson were representative of national leaders who had lacked the science literacy, intellectual heft, moral clarity, and courage of conviction to stand up to their technocrats. It was a period of “Yes, Prime Minister” on steroids, with Sir Humphrey Appleby winning most of the guerrilla campaign waged by the permanent civil service against the transient and clueless Prime Minister Jim Hacker.
A more accurate reading may be that it represents collusion between the WHO and the richest countries, home to the biggest pharmaceutical companies, to dilute accountability for decisions, taken in the name of public health, that profit a narrow elite. The changes will lock in the seamless rule of the technocratic-managerial elite at both the national and international levels. Yet the WHO edicts, although legally binding in theory, will be unenforceable against the most powerful countries in practice.
Moreover, the new regime aims to eliminate transparency and critical scrutiny by criminalising any opinion that questions the official narrative from the WHO and governments, thereby elevating them to the status of dogma. The pandemic treaty calls for governments to tackle the “infodemics” of false information, misinformation, disinformation, and even “too much information” (Article 1c). This is censorship. Authorities have no right to be shielded from critical questioning of official information. Freedom of information is a cornerstone of an open and resilient society and a key means to hold authorities to public scrutiny and accountability.
Worst of all, they will create a perverse incentive: the rise of an international bureaucracy whose defining purpose, existence, powers, and budgets will depend on more frequent declarations of actual or anticipated pandemic outbreaks.
COVID in the Context of Africa’s Disease Burden
In the Hastings Center report referred to earlier, Mr. Gostin, Mr. Klock, and Ms. Finch claim that “lower-income countries experienced larger losses and longer-lasting economic setbacks.” This is a casual elision that shifts the blame for harmful downstream effects away from lockdowns in the futile quest to eradicate the virus to the virus itself. The chief damage to developing countries was caused by the worldwide shutdown of social life and economic activities and the drastic reduction in international trade.The discreet elision aroused my curiosity about the authors’ affiliations. It came as no surprise to read that they lead the O’Neill Institute–Foundation for the National Institutes of Health project on an international instrument for pandemic prevention and preparedness.
Specifically, they examined and found wanting a number of assumptions and several references in eight G20, World Bank, and WHO policy documents. On the one hand, the reported increase in natural outbreaks is best explained by technologically more sophisticated diagnostic testing equipment, while the disease burden has been effectively reduced with improved surveillance, response mechanisms, and other public health interventions. Consequently, there is no real urgency to rush into the new accords. Instead, governments should take all the time they need to situate pandemic risk in the wider health care context and formulate policy tailored to the more accurate risk and interventions matrix.
Lockdowns had caused significant harm to low-income countries, the group stated, yet the WHO wanted legal authority to compel member states to comply with its advice in future pandemics, including with respect to vaccine passports and border closures. Instead of bowing to “health imperialism,” it would be preferable for African countries to set their own priorities in alleviating the disease burden of their major killer diseases, such as cholera, malaria, and yellow fever.
Europe and the United States, making up a little less than 10 and more than 4 percent of world population, account for nearly 18 and 17 percent, respectively, of all COVID-related deaths in the world. By contrast Asia, with nearly 60 percent of the world’s people, accounts for 23 percent of all COVID-related deaths. In the meantime, Africa, with more than 17 percent of the global population, has recorded less than 4 percent of global COVID-19 deaths (Table 1).
If we perform a linear extrapolation of 2021 deaths to estimate ballpark figures for the three years 2020–22 inclusive for the number of Africans killed by these big three, approximately 1.78 million died from malaria, 1.5 million from tuberculosis, and 1.26 million from HIV/AIDS. (I excluded 2023 as COVID-19 had faded by then, as can be seen in Table 1.) By comparison, the total number of COVID-related deaths across Africa in the three years was 259,000.
Whether or not the WHO is pursuing a policy of health colonialism, therefore, the Pan-African Epidemic and Pandemic Working Group has a point regarding the grossly exaggerated threat of COVID-19 in the total picture of Africa’s disease burden.