The Strange Wagner Coup

Members of Wagner Group in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023. StringerAFP via Getty Images

Commentary

On June 24, mercenaries from the Wagner Group, the Kremlin’s private military company, abandoned the war in Ukraine and marched into Lipetsk, 225 miles south of Moscow, in an apparent insurrection.

“This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” declared the defiant commander of the Wagner mercenary army, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as he ordered his men to turn on Moscow.

Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, the group has been involved in some of the heaviest fighting at the behest and ostensibly on the payroll of the Kremlin. In recent weeks, Prigozhin, who was an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been publicly critical of the war—criticism that culminated on June 23 with his call for not only Wagner mercenaries but also Russian Army soldiers to turn on Moscow.

Prigozhin claims that his group marched into Russia, reaching Rostov-on-Don unopposed. However, he also stated that his soldiers would kill anyone who stood in their way. According to Prigozhin, a Wagner unit shot down a Russian aircraft after coming under aerial attack from the Russian military. On social media, he also ranted that Wagner troops had come under missile attack from the Russian military. Russia’s media is heavily censored, making it very difficult to confirm Prigozhin’s claims.

Prigozhin reportedly blamed Russia’s Minister of Defense General Sergei Shoigu, and vowed revenge. There is a possibility that Prigozhin’s coup attempt was in reaction to Shoigu’s proposal earlier this month to disband Wagner and integrate its troops into the Russian Army. This would rob Prigozhin of his income while relegating him to a position of irrelevance in the Russian power hierarchy.

In Moscow, police raided Wagner’s headquarters, and Putin declared a state of emergency, taking antiterrorism measures. Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, swore his support for Putin, offering his Chechen fighters to stop Wagner. Some Chechens were withdrawn from Ukraine and redeployed in areas threatened by Wagner. In a surprise move, however, a few hours after the insurrection began, Prigozhin ordered his men to retreat. Putin later reported that Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko had negotiated a deal. According to Putin, no charges would be brought against Prigozhin or Wagner mercenaries, and Prigozhin would live in exile in Belarus.

Prigozhin is already wanted by the FBI for “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States” in connection with a computer scam company he operated in Florida from 2014 to 2018. The bureau is offering a $250,000 reward for information leading to Prigozhin’s arrest.

The Wagner Group was instrumental in Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. They have also been active in wars in Africa and the Middle East, where they have been accused of rape, torture, mass murder, and other human rights violations. Apart from furthering the Kremlin’s foreign policy objectives in these regions, Wagner also controls gold mines in Cameroon and Sudan, transporting gold back to the Kremlin. At a time when the Russian economy is stymied by Western sanctions, gold from Africa is a much-needed source of funding for the war. It is unclear what implications this apparent coup will have for Wagner’s continued service to Putin or whether it will disrupt Moscow’s flow of gold.

Gold miners dig at a mining site in the Cameroon town of Betare Oya on April 4, 2018. Reinnier Kaze/AFP via Getty Images

External observers do not know what to make of the uprising. Putin apologists claim that the entire incident was a ruse intended to position Wagner forces in Belarus to launch a new front on Ukraine. This seems implausible, however, because troops could have been moved more stealthily. Also, there is no indication that Wagner troops are being moved to Belarus or that Prigozhin is actually there.

There is much speculation that it demonstrates Putin’s loss of control of his military and country. The White House has already headed off speculation that the United States was somehow behind the Wagner insurrection.

The reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was, “Russia’s weakness is obvious.” Some Ukrainians celebrated the uprising, believing it provided more opportunity for a Ukrainian victory. Even if the uprising is not interpreted as a loss of control by Putin, his soft response to Prigozhin could encourage others to defy Moscow or even launch their own coup. An internal conflict in Russia, with various opposition parties emboldened to act on their own authority, could create a more dangerous situation for the West as Russia’s actions will be less predictable and less rational.

The uprising has immediate strategic implications for the war, as it comes at a time when Ukraine forces are probing Russian lines in preparation for a counteroffensive. Wagner represents nearly 12 percent of Moscow’s total forces on the ground in Ukraine. If Wagner ceases to exist or these troops disappear from the battlefield, the war’s progress will dramatically change.

The Kremlin says the current plan is for Wagner mercenaries to be absorbed into the regular Russian military, but no details have been given. The mercenaries are motivated by salaries that are dramatically higher than those of ordinary Russian soldiers. Another issue is that by deploying Wagner to commit atrocities in Africa and elsewhere on the globe, the Kremlin maintains plausible deniability. If Wagner soldiers put on regular military uniforms, Putin will lose that thin veil. Finally, it is unclear if Moscow would have the ability to recall Wagner units working abroad, particularly those involved in gold mining operations, rather than having them go into business for themselves.

Throughout the past year and a half, Ukraine’s resistance has hindered Russia’s progress, prompting the lingering question of when Putin’s mounting frustration might drive him to unleash a nuclear attack in a desperate attempt to salvage his reputation. Recently, Zelenskyy warned Western allies that Russia may be planning to blow up an abandoned nuclear power plant to cause a radiation disaster.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.