Unicorns don’t exist.
More accurately, there’s no evidence that they exist, which isn’t quite the same thing. As astronomer Carl Sagan famously articulated, “Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence.”
Yet Sagan has also popularized the idea that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” which is also true, and a reprise of a similar axiom articulated in the early 19th century by French mathematician and scientist Pierre-Simon Laplace: “The weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness.”
And so you’re free to assert that unicorns are real, but that claim deserves to be dismissed unless you can find exceptional evidence to back it up.
The two papers are rigorous systematic reviews and meta-analyses, which examine in the first instance the practice of administering puberty blockers to youth with “gender dysphoria,” and secondly, the practice of administering “gender affirming” hormone therapy to gender-dysphoric individuals under the age of 26.
The modern-day assertions that sex and gender are not binary in nature, but rather exist on a spectrum, and that it’s possible to be a male trapped in a female’s body (or vice versa), and finally that it’s possible to convert from one sex or gender to another, are certainly extraordinary claims. They are such because of their sudden introduction into medical discussion, and rapid acceptance as being self-evidently true. And so one would expect that extraordinary evidence exists to support the practices of administration of puberty blockers and “gender affirming” hormones to gender-confused individuals.
But here’s the conclusion of Dr. Guyatt et al. with respect to puberty blockers:
“There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the effects of puberty blockers in individuals experiencing GD [gender dysphoria]. Methodologically rigorous prospective studies are needed to understand the effects of this intervention.”
And the conclusion of their study of cross-gender hormones:
“There is considerable uncertainty about the effects of GAHT [gender-affirming hormone therapy] and we cannot exclude the possibility of benefit or harm. Methodologically rigorous prospective studies are needed to produce higher certainty evidence.”
Here’s Guyatt et al. in the discussion section of their puberty blocker paper:
“Since the current best evidence, including our systematic review and meta-analysis is predominantly very low certainty, clinicians must clearly communicate this evidence to patients and caregivers. Treatment decisions should consider the lack of moderate- and high-quality evidence, uncertainty about the effects of puberty blockers, and patient’s values and preferences. Given the individualistic nature of values and preferences, guideline developers and policy makers should be transparent about which and whose values they are prioritizing when making recommendations and policy decisions.”
Their “gender-affirming” hormone therapy paper adopts similar language:
“Evidence about the effects of GAHT in individuals aged <26 years with GD is predominantly of very low certainty, with lack of moderate and high certainty evidence about the effects of this intervention. This information is crucial for patients, caregivers, clinicians, guideline developers and policy makers involved in treatment decisions. Beyond evidence certainty, decision making should consider other factors, including the magnitude and consequences of potential benefits and harms, patients’ and caregivers’ values and preferences, resource use, feasibility, acceptability and equity. Guideline developers and policy makers must transparently state which and whose values they prioritise when developing treatment recommendations and policies.”
All of this should serve as an enormous flashing light of caution to Canadian gender clinicians. Yet what we have is the opposite: full steam ahead.
It’s extraordinary. And strange. And extremely upsetting to clinicians like me and to the many others like me who care deeply about the well-being of our youth.