For decades, the Saudis have been economic giants and political dwarfs.
Throughout most of the post-World War II period, Saudi Arabia, with its apparently endless oil reserves, has been vital to the West as a (reasonably) safe and secure source of energy. As such, the United States committed to Saudi defense, provided the country with massive amounts of high-tech weaponry and training for its armed forces, and worried over the future of a kingdom headed by leaders with essentially absolute power.
For their part, Saudis steadily jacked up the price of oil, and they—and their oil-soaked partners—became rich as Croesus while luxuriating in relatively cost-free protection from their customers.
Wake-Up Calls
The first “wake-up” call came with the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Now instead of a secular Shah with whom Saudis could have a benign relationship, Tehran was controlled by fanatical, revolutionary Shia Islamists. Consequently, the Saudis supported Saddam Hussein during his 1980s war against Iran, presumably calculating that Saddam was better than fanatical Iranian Islamists.The defining wake-up, however, was Saddam’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait. With horror, the Saudis realized that if Iraqi armor had kept rolling, its own (expensive) defenses would not have sufficed to prevent Iraqi conquest. Nevertheless, with considerable reluctance, the Saudis played host to the U.S. coalition juggernaut that expelled and annihilated Saddam’s forces in Kuwait.
MBS Emerges
Faced with foreign challenges and increasing pressure from a population of which 70 percent is under 30 and chaffing under draconian Wahabi restrictions, the old order had to go.Such led to the emergence of Mohammed bin Salman (generally known as “MBS”) following a series of machinations reminiscent of “Game of Thrones.” Officially crown prince, MBS in effect rules Saudi Arabia.
MBS has announced a sweeping reform agenda. He has scaled back funding for Wahhabi international activity, promised that women will have the right to drive, and arrested 200 of the country’s wealthiest plutocrats, including a number of princes, for corruption, forcing them to surrender assets that MBS claimed amounted to $100 billion.
MBS’s foreign policy ventures have been less successful. Saudi remains bogged in Yemen combat attempting to restore pro-Saudi leadership. Combined Gulf State efforts to dominate Qatar and force it inter alia to cease supporting Iran, have damaged Qatar, but the country has sufficient wealth to withstand the pressure.
Reportedly MBS also pressed Palestinians to accept a Saudi plan to recognize Israel’s Jerusalem claims and much of its West Bank settlements. Openly, MBS has said Israel has “a right to have its own land.”
Working to change the Saudi “brand,” MBS has been on an international charm offensive. Now in the United States, following a visit to England where he dined with the queen, he has met with a wide range of U.S. economic, cultural, and political figures, including President Donald Trump.
MBS is clearly “high risk, high gain.” He has many balls in the air. If successful, he will radically transform Saudi Arabia. Failure will see him buried—forgotten in the Saudi sands.