Realist observers of China have speculated about the reasons for the apparent concessions from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the past couple of months.
First, the imprisoned journalist, Cheng Lei was released from jail after three years.
Then the CCP indicated that it would enter into discussions about lifting trade bans, including on Australian wine.
Pro-Beijing commentators have suggested that these decisions were a result of a change in government in Australia that had a more “open” approach to the communist regime.
What the realists thought is now clear: Beijing hopes to win the backing of Australia to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
China’s Consul-General in Brisbane Ruan Zongze was explicit in his opinion piece in The Australian newspaper.
Noting that this year marked the 50th anniversary of former Labor Prime Minister Gough Whitlam’s historic visit to China, Mr. Ruan argued that “we are at the new starting point of another 50 years of relations. There are no disputes left over from history or major conflicts of interests between our countries, and we share unlimited opportunities for cooperation.”
Then comes Beijing’s pitch: “It is high time for Anthony Albanese to visit China, as it will open up broad prospects for China and Australia’s comprehensive strategic partnership, and write a new chapter of China-Australia relations with a bright future.”
Specifically, “China is committed to high-level opening-up and high-quality development, and stands ready to work with Australia to build an open global economy. China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership will be crucial to China’s institutional opening-up and the upgrading of China-Australia economic co-operation.”
The Chinese authorities seek to join the CPTPP, the successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which then-U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2017.
China needs the support of member states, including Australia.
Japan, the subject of both Chinese sanctions and aggressive behaviour in the East China Sea, is resolutely opposed to China joining the trade bloc.
The Chinese leadership, especially Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang are expected to appeal directly to Mr. Albanese for Australia to endorse its entry into the 11-nation trade pact.
Media reports indicate that the prime minister, following assurances to Japan and the United States, will hold the line during his three-day visit to the country, telling his hosts the CPTPP has the highest possible standards for entry and requires unanimous agreement of all members to allow new entrants.
The fact that Beijing continues to maintain arbitrarily imposed trade sanctions is a clear indication that it is using them as a bargaining chip with Australia.
This alone is a good enough reason not to agree to its proposals.
There is no guarantee that sanctions will not be reimposed once China is admitted to the CPTPP. This has been its modus operandi since its admission to the World Trade Organisation.
Australia should not even contemplate China’s admission while any sanctions remain in place.
Meanwhile, Japan’s concerns have been heightened by the continued activity of Beijing’s military around Taiwan.
An ongoing drill by the aircraft carrier Shandong of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy near the island of Taiwan was reportedly joined by additional PLA aviation and naval forces over the past few days, reported the state-owned Global Times.
Worryingly, the newspaper added that “the PLA continues to enhance its capabilities beyond the first island chain,” which includes Japan!
Beijing also continues to carry out aggressive activities against the Philippines in the South China Sea, a region that it now claims as its own.
The claim, made on the basis of one historically dubious chart, has already been rejected by an international tribunal, but the PLA acts on the basis of “might is right.”
The region carries a very significant part of world trade.
Membership of the CPTPP would enable the CCP to enhance its aspirations to dominate global trade by creating a Chinese hegemony.
Its aspirations are already on display, including elsewhere in the world. The CCP supports Hamas as well as other totalitarian regimes like Russia and Iran. It has produced maps of the Middle East that have erased Israel.
It is spreading its version of governance to other countries, including a recent seminar for political leaders in Tanzania, and it is promoting a new global financial system.
It has paid politicians in a number of nations, including the Solomon Islands close to Australia.
Therefore, the Australian government must continue to be clear-eyed about the CCP.
Even its rhetoric is incredible. In his recent article, Mr. Ruan asserted that, “Australia is committed to supporting multiculturalism, while China has also been advocating the idea of ‘harmony in diversity’ for thousands of years.”
Apart from the historical distortion, try telling that to Tibetans, Uighurs, supporters of democracy in Hong Kong, religious believers in China, and many others.
As advised by U.S. President Biden, the Albanese government should be very careful to “trust, but verify.”
