A year after the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre of Israelis by Hamas, the result is tragedy on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides, with many dead and wounded and more than 1 million displaced.
Recognize Humanity
First, recognize humanity on both sides. Our compassion and prayers for peace should go to each of the innocents and their families who lost loved ones over the past year. When we lose our ability to see the humanity of those on the other side, we push peace further away and lose the values in which we believe.Stay Strong
Second, stay strong in the face of continued attacks by dictators and the terrorists they support. Sadly, many continue to blame the victim—Israel—as these attacks by Iran and its proxies from Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza expand the geographic scope of the war. As a result, Tehran has put millions of voiceless civilians in these regions at risk.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rightly said this dispiriting anti-Semitism will only strengthen Iran and be viewed by history with shame.
It is true that civilian casualties and the impact of war on neighborhoods must be avoided with more care. Palestinian evictions in the West Bank to make way for new Israeli settlements must end. These only exacerbate anger in not only Iran but also among Israel’s quiet Arab partners in places such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Be Vigilant
Third, we must be far more vigilant than in the past. The lesson on vigilance was demonstrated by warnings about increasing Hamas activity, including terrorists massing and pulsing the border, months before the Oct. 7, 2023, incursion. Some warnings were from unarmed female Israeli soldiers at an observation post near Gaza. They were ignored by the Israeli brass, and many of them died or were taken hostage on Oct. 7, 2023.A similar lack of vigilance and deterrent action accompanied the onset of war with Russia in Ukraine. Moscow sent its military in disguise into Crimea in 2014. We did nearly nothing in response, and so Vladimir Putin consolidated his Crimean gains and is trying to take all of Ukraine now. The result is approximately 1 million dead or wounded on both sides.
Democratize
Dictators in all of these countries create conflict over territory to distract their populations from much-needed democratic and market reforms. The need for these people to democratize is the fourth major lesson one can derive from the Oct. 7 attack. Civilian populations, such as those in Gaza or southern Lebanon, are at dire risk when they allow malign actors to dominate their governance. These malign actors do not care about the people over whom they rule but hold onto their power come what may.And what comes when dictators attack democracies is a rain of bombs in retaliation that often kills civilians despite a democracy’s best attempts to limit civilian damage. While Ukraine is doing a laudable job of observing the laws of war, these laws are usually thrown out the window when leaders feel the losses of their soldiers and an existential threat to their state.
So before war starts, civilians in belligerent dictatorships should do whatever it takes to change their leadership. That will require sacrifice but not as much sacrifice as being at war. Gazans learned this far too late. Russians and Lebanese are learning this. Iranians are about to learn. This is a horrible lesson best learned from past—not future—wars. Chinese citizens should take note and democratize their society as quickly as possible while being fully cognizant of how hard this will be.
Meanwhile, U.S. and allied citizens should pay close attention to the failure of Israel’s leaders to listen to observers of the Gaza border before Oct. 7, 2023. The warning signs were there then and are here today. But again, we are not listening. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea mean business. They are all risking more war to steal yet more territory from their neighbors. They are massing troops and war materiel and pulsing borders. The democracies will not accept their border violations and will ultimately go to war to stop them. So we in the democracies need to prepare more quickly for those wars now. This means greater defense spending—especially among U.S. allies who now spend below 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense—and a more rapid willingness to use our defense resources to nip threats in the bud, from the South China Sea to Ukraine and everything in between.