On Aug. 7, Ukrainian forces launched an infantry assault nine miles across the Russian border. It was aimed at the Sudzha gas hub—the only point of entry for Russian gas into the European Union (it also supplies Ukraine). This diversionary attack has two purposes. Firstly, to attack Russian energy infrastructure, and secondly—and most importantly—to draw in thousands of Russian troops, equipment, and planes so they can be destroyed piecemeal by Ukrainian drones and missiles.
President Joe Biden, with agreement from other NATO members, has supplied billions of dollars of advanced weapons to Ukraine on the stipulation that they are not used on targets inside Russian territory. Mostly the Ukrainians have accepted these terms. Of course, that excludes the Ukrainian territory that is occupied by the Russians, including Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Nevertheless, every day, the Ukrainian military is striking deeper into Russian territory.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine can home-manufacture 1 million drones in 2024. Some of these drones can fly extremely long distances—although the further they fly, the lighter their payload.
On Aug. 7, Ukraine struck Lipetsk military air base, more than 217 miles from Ukraine’s border.
On Aug. 3, Ukrainian drones destroyed ammunition depots at the Morozovsk military airfield, 111 miles from the Ukrainian border.
On July 27, Ukraine launched drones at Murmansk airfield and claimed to have destroyed a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber and several helicopters. Russia has not confirmed the losses. The extraordinary issue here is that the airfield is more than 1,100 miles from Ukraine.
On the same night, Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil depot in Polevaya, Kursk Oblast, 450 miles away.
On July 9, Ukrainians destroyed an ammunition base in the Voronezh Oblast, about 350 miles from the Ukrainian border. Once again, they used their locally manufactured drones.
On April 2, a Ukrainian drone struck Taneco, Russia’s third-largest oil refinery, about 800 miles from the front lines.
Attacks on military infrastructure enter an ethical gray zone. While Russian military bases and equipment seem legitimate targets in wartime, what of bridges, airports, railways, and power stations that also have civilian uses?
Ukraine and its NATO allies seem to have accepted oil refineries as legitimate targets. There is some chatter on social media that technicians in Russia are looking to quit their jobs at these refineries.
Regardless of accepted ethical norms, Russia repeatedly attacks civilians, and on July 31, launched 89 Russian drones on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
Will the recently supplied F-16 fighter jets make a difference?
How has Russian President Vladimir Putin responded?
Secondly, and not for the first time in this war, Putin has threatened a tactical (short-range) nuclear strike in the area.
He called the Aug. 7 land assault a “provocation.”
The strikes inside Russia are upsetting his political base. This, and the loss of a major part of his workforce to the war adding to the economic strains on the Russian economy, are behind his circumspect response to date. Regardless, his long-term goal of subjugation of all of Ukraine is unlikely to change.