Commentary
The civil war in Sudan is one of the most chaotic worldwide. At the crossroads of ethnic, religious, and global rivalries, it includes Arab Islamists versus indigenous Africans, civil society versus dictators, Russians versus Ukrainians, and Iranians versus Americans.
Why should you care?
Osama bin Laden worked out of Sudan from 1991 to 1996. Some of his Islamist associates are still there. Chaos in the country opens space for al-Qaeda, the ISIS terrorist group, and Iranian terrorism to expand from the Red Sea to the Atlantic Ocean.
Americans and our allies have an interest in stopping the genocide in Sudan because it is the right thing to do. We have an interest in impeding malign actors there, including Russia. We have an interest in supporting a democratic civil society that provides humanitarian assistance to starving children. That civil society could one day grow into a stable U.S. ally.
Granted, the political environment is complex. Russia and Iran support opposite sides in Sudan, where Ukraine and Iran side with the army while Russia supports the rebels. Both of the major armed groups in the conflict are egregious human rights abusers, but the rebels and their genocidal violence against small farming communities are far worse. Known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the rebels fund themselves by controlling most of Sudan’s gold trade, in which Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) partake.
Since April, the RSF took most of Khartoum, the capital, which is now under blockade by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The RSF also occupied the country’s second-largest city, in which reporting from March 8 alleges ongoing murder, rape, looting, and arson that worsened a refugee crisis. The Arab-led RSF is accused of genocide against minority “black Africans,” a repeat of the Janjaweed genocide of 2003.
Since April 2023, the RSF’s General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) has led the fight against General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s SAF. The two leaders previously combined to execute coups in 2019 and 2021 against civilian administrations.
While both commit human rights abuse, in August, General al-Burhan at least called for democratic elections to stop the war. He resisted an Iranian request for Sudan to host a naval base in an attempt to stay on the right side of the United States and Israel. Egypt and Turkey support him.
However, Iranian and Islamist influence within the SAF fatally complicates U.S. and allied engagement. Islamist interests in Sudan, known as “Kizan,” are integrated into the armed forces and have supported Hamas, Hezbollah, and Al Qaeda in the past.
Until December 2020, the United States designated Sudan a state sponsor of terrorism. That year, the civilian Sudanese government paid U.S. victims of terrorism $335 million and started to normalize relations with Israel. Tragically, the 2021 coup returned the country to chaos.
On March 6, The Wall Street Journal reported Ukrainian military operations against Russian mercenaries operating in Sudan. In September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with General al-Burhan in what appears to be a developing military partnership and arms trade between the two. With the help of Ukrainian forces, SAF leadership fled Khartoum for Port Sudan in the fall. Ukrainian troops also help the SAF with night vision and drone technologies.
Iran has supplied deadly drones to the SAF, which indiscriminately attacked civilian areas in Khartoum. The United States and European Union have criticized both the RSF and SAF, including for interfering with aid shipments despite extreme hunger. The SAF is blocking aid shipments from its port into rebel-controlled territories despite the developing famine. According to the United Nations, the war has displaced almost 11 million people, with 18 million subject to acute hunger. Over 13,000 have been killed.
The UAE has allegedly supplied arms to the RSF since June in violation of a U.N. arms embargo. In January, a leaked U.N. report found “credible” evidence of weekly UAE cargo planes into neighboring Chad that delivered not only humanitarian aid but also ammunition, drones, howitzers, multiple-rocket launchers, and advanced anti-aircraft missiles.
Civil society in Sudan has reasonably sought a democratic transition from civil war. The best option for keeping Sudan away from terrorism, Iran, and Russia in the future is to support this civil society now and pressure the SAF into meeting verifiable milestones that will force the country toward democracy. This should include ridding the government of any remaining Iranian and terrorist influence and requiring it to better protect civilians as it fights.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
