By late November, Sierra Leone’s government of President Julius Maada Bio seemed to be fighting a rear-guard action to survive in the face of almost nationwide insurrection and defections from the Sierra Leone Armed Forces (SLAF).
The question now revolves around what may transpire following a potential collapse of the Bio government. Even the military is fractured and may not be capable of mounting an effective interim government under martial law.
This would imply the need for regional peacekeeping forces or possibly the reinsertion of supporting British forces. What has been significant is a lack of response from the Chinese Embassy. China has been a major supporter of the SLAF but has stayed out of the limelight during the insurrections since June.
Inside Sierra Leone, there is another view: Mr. Bio was orchestrating events to suppress all dissidents and firmly cementing a one-party state in place, protecting him in perpetuity despite his record of economic and social mismanagement.
A delegation from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Nigeria flew into Freetown’s Lungi International Airport on Nov. 27, ostensibly to show solidarity with the government but more to shore up the public’s sense of security.
Communication out of the capital, Freetown, is patchy, and nothing reliable is emerging from official sources. Still, we have been receiving firsthand reports, photographs, and videos showing the levels of violence now growing across the country following the disputed and unrecognized reelection of Mr. Bio on June 24.
There was evidence that Mr. Bio, a former SLAF brigadier, was attempting to use the Armed Forces to essentially create a military government. However, by late November, too many troops had defected to make that a safe option. A so-called peace agreement with dissident elements cannot be met by Mr. Bio because, as sources within the State House indicated, the accord required a list of all the prisoners taken by the military, including politicians. Most of those on the list have since been killed by Mr. Bio’s men.
The military insurrection and the break-out of all inmates from the Pademba Road (Freetown) Central Prison on Nov. 26 now allow Mr. Bio to say that the people on the list of detainees were among those who escaped from Pademba Road. The government imposed a nine-hour national curfew after the “unlawful release” of prisoners from Pademba Road, but the shooting continued unabated. The government later said that the activities resulted from efforts by some “retired military and police” personnel, but the visual evidence showed that current SLAF members were actively rebelling.
A question being raised by skeptics in Freetown is whether the release of the Pademba Road prisoners was a deliberate plan to cover the fact that many of Mr. Bio’s opponents had already been killed.
Significantly, on Nov. 4, in neighboring Guinea, an insurrection in and around the administrative center, the Kaloum Peninsula, in the capital Conakry, succeeded in releasing the former head of the 2008 military junta, Moussa Dadis Camara, from imprisonment.
But in Sierra Leone, the unrest was, by late November, national and included protests by students against “soaring” tuition fees, as well as widespread anger over fuel shortages caused by the breakdown in governance. This means that the economy was now at a standstill.
On the night of Nov. 25, there was an “attempted” seizure of the Wilberforce Barracks and armory in Freetown. It is understood that the break-in was successful and that a significant amount of weapons and ordnance was taken. Extensive gunfire was heard through the night in the area of Wilberforce Barracks and the Presidential Lodge.
The government declared that the situation around Gondama and Daru Barracks was under control, as well as around Murray Barracks and the Ordnance Armour Depot. But that was largely wishful thinking. There were unconfirmed reports on Nov. 27 that dissidents had taken over the State House (the seat of government).
The head of operations at the Joint Force Command-Cockerill was reported to have been killed along with his driver and many other military personnel. Several reports indicated that the Sierra Leone government authorities are on the run as the firing in the capital is running out of their favor. One report quoted soldiers as saying they had turned against Mr. Bio and were looking for him, indicating that they would kill him like the late Liberian President Samuel Doe, who was murdered on Sept. 9, 1990, by rebel leader Prince Johnson.
Meanwhile, according to this author’s sources, the chief of the Electoral Commissioner, Mohamed Kenewui Konneh, may have been shot, apparently during the weekend of Nov. 25–26. However, this could not be confirmed.
Meanwhile, troops still loyal to Mr. Bio have been attempting to capture anti-Bio troops, including the successful capture of a rebel who had been in the president’s National Provisional Ruling Council (NPRC) government of 1996, known as “Leather Boot.” That NPRC administration was a military government.
On Nov. 27, Sierra Leone Chief Minister David Sengeh said that some of the Pademba Road prisoners had “voluntarily surrendered” back into custody. Col. Issa Bangura, at the Ministry of Defence, said that seven serving military personnel had been “killed in action” during the weekend’s fighting, and others had sustained injuries. In reality, casualty levels of civilians, military, and police are unknown. Abandoned vehicles with military equipment and uniforms were reported around Freetown and other locations in the country.
The government claimed to be back in control of events, with Mr. Bio said to be “back at work” at the State House. However, other reports said that at the time, Mr. Bio was in Accra, Ghana, and not “back at work” in Freetown. Reports from Makeni (capital of the Northern Province) and other towns in the north/northwest indicated that many businesses and schools remained closed, and in Freetown, many businesses were closed. Life seemed, however, to have returned to normal in the south/southwest.
It is clear that the Sierra Leone national unrest has persisted since the June election chaos and has, in fact, escalated. The government has resorted to a campaign of violence to suppress the unrest, but this has not worked. Moreover, there seems to be a spillover effect on neighboring Guinea, which has explored the prospect of using this time to seize disputed borderlands between Sierra Leone and Guinea.
Significantly, in direct contrast, elections were held in Liberia—which also borders Sierra Leone—on Oct. 10 to elect the president, House of Representatives, and half of the Senate. Incumbent President George Weah was eligible for a second six-year term and contested the election, but no candidate won a majority in the first round, with Mr. Weah narrowly placing first over opposition leader Joseph Boakai (Unity Party), who had served as vice-president to President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf until 2017.
This meant that both advanced to a runoff election on Nov. 14. In that, Mr. Boakai and his vice-presidential running mate, Jeremiah Koung, narrowly defeated Mr. Weah and his running mate, Jewel Taylor, polling 50.64 percent of the votes to 49.26 percent, respectively. It was the narrowest margin of victory in any Liberian presidential election. International observers proclaimed the election well-administered and fair, and the United Kingdom, ECOWAS, and the United States congratulated Liberia on the “largely peaceful” election.
And, unlike the situation in many African states, Mr. Weah conceded defeat. The Boakai administration would be sworn into office in January 2024.
But Liberia was going against the trend in the region, where there has been little penalty for overriding election norms to seize or retain power. In the case of Sierra Leone, the extent of the repression of political discourse and the actual killing of so many opponents of the government means that there is little possibility of a “return to normal.”
Either Mr. Bio will go in the increasing violence, or he will stay in charge of a largely unrecognized and isolated government through further escalation of repression. He is pushing for the latter.
