As I’m writing from the United Kingdom for the next couple of weeks, I thought I would offer a take on Boris Johnson’s resignation that involves one huge missed opportunity and one indefensible decision.
On the one hand, we’ll touch on how he fed the left-wing British media a juicy scandal via his own self-inflicted stupidity. On the other, we’ll discuss how Johnson missed a key economic opportunity to enhance post-Brexit British trade.
Groping for an Answer
The scandal that led to Johnson stepping down was his appointment of Member of Parliament Chris Pincher as deputy chief whip in February, despite his supposed prior knowledge of Pincher’s long history of allegedly groping other men.The notion that Johnson didn’t know about Pincher’s history just isn’t credible. So why would the prime minister make such an appointment?
Riding the Brexit Wave to Power
Recall that Johnson was swept back into power in 2019 with the largest victory since Margaret Thatcher’s in 1987. Johnson had a serious mandate to get the Brexit done and over with.Boris delivered on the promise—at least in the first half.
There’s no question that Johnson did, in fact, get the UK out of the European Union. But it’s one thing to leave one trading relationship and quit another to replace it with a new one. On that score, Johnson was unable–or unwilling–to put in a trade agreement to replace the one Britain had just exited.
It was actually quite a good opportunity to replace the EU trade deal with a more favorable one with the United States. The Trump administration was certainly in favor of making a bilateral trade deal with the UK.
Let’s Make a Deal
Recall that at that time, the Trump administration was fully engaged in decoupling U.S. trade with China on a number of fronts.On a broader basis, U.S. and Western manufacturing companies had begun reshoring and near-shoring their operations in response to rising Chinese labor costs, data theft, shipping expenses, and other negative factors.
In short, the United States was certainly in the mood to cut new trade deals.
A Multi-Phase Trade Agreement Wasn’t Out of the Question
What did Johnson do?He let the free trade negotiations slip away.
Such an agreement could have allowed some basic points of common interest to be codified, with an agreed-upon schedule for further phases of negotiations for more sensitive and complex areas in the future.
Politically, Johnson would have been unmercifully condemned as caving to the Americans on trade. But he would have been politically condemned no matter what he did. That’s the nature of the British left-wing press.
Britain May Have Been in a Better Position Than Today
It could be argued, after all, that Johnson would have been in a stronger trading position with the United States than it had been with the European Union for the simple reason that bilateral trading can be more flexible and beneficial than multilateral trading, wherein multiple national interests have to be considered.But due to his failure to secure a bilateral trade agreement with the United States when it had the chance, the UK is still without one today.
The greatest success of Johnson’s leadership was delivering on his promise to complete the Brexit plan as voted upon by the British people.
He did that.
But when it came to delivering any post-Brexit trade agreement of much merit—particularly when he had the chance to deliver a huge one with the United States—he failed to seize the opportunity when it was before him, whether that involved putting more effort in negotiations or becoming more flexible in some areas.
Sadly, scandal seems to be a part of all administrations to one degree or another. In his case, Johnson’s last act as prime minister is one of scandal as well, resigning in a less-than-honorable fashion.
Would a trade deal with the United States have solved all of Britain’s economic challenges?
Of course not, but it could have been quite useful.
Did Johnson know about Pincher’s background before appointing him to his lofty position?
If he did, as it seems apparent, then the scorn he is now receiving is well-earned.