The demographics of Orange County are certainly changing. This once conservative stronghold is moving from a strong red to a shade of purple. So, when someone does something that can move it to blue and those individuals are in the Republican Party, others are bound to react or intervene. And in the past week the family fight went to Republican insiders, with shots being fired from all directions.
Let me set the table. The Republican Party of Orange County prematurely endorsed Diane Harkey for Fifth District Supervisor in October of last year. A month later the Orange County Board of Supervisors approved the new supervisorial maps, a requirement performed every ten years to reflect population and groups of interest movement. The Fifth District changed dramatically, with the cities of Costa Mesa and Newport Beach moving back into it after being in the Second District for the past twenty years.
This started my receiving several telephone calls from South County coastal cities. “Harkey can’t beat Foley as she was severely damaged in her congressional campaign against Mike Levin, you should run.”
A smart potential candidate should first do a poll. So, I retained the nationally known Trafalger Group out of Georgia. The top line confirmed the concerns that I had been hearing. With a sampling of more than 1,400, Foley and I garnered 42 percent each, and Harkey 13 percent, with 3 percent not voting.
With this information, the Lincoln Club of Orange County recruited Sen. Pat Bates, former Supervisor for the Fifth District, to run. It recently formed a political action committee, the 1962 PAC, which is raising funds on her behalf. It also met with Harkey and Muldoon and asked them to step down as the polling showed they had no chance.
Instead of reading the tea leaves, these two Republicans decided to file and run anyway. Now we have two spoilers and an upcoming train wreck in slow motion.
Last week, the 1962 PAC sent a letter to Republican leaders presenting its bona fide concerns about Harkey. They pointed out that Harkey’s baggage is too damning, and it is too well known by South County voters. More disconcerting is that it could potentially hurt other Republicans on the November ticket. If Harkey places in the top-two, the potential mail pieces attacking her would be uncomfortable and could hurt other Republican candidates on the ballot.
“We ask you, the Republican leaders of Orange County to do your part in stopping this pending disaster.”
The Orange County Republican Party Central Committee Chair responded with an email.
“We stand by our endorsement of Diane Harkey for Orange County Supervisor. Diane Harkey was vetted by our Central Committee.”
I’m a member of the Central Committee, and I’m a team player, but I would say the vetting was lacking. Doing a poll is serious vetting but was not done last fall. Which is why the endorsement should have waited until the decennial redistricting process had been completed.
Harkey’s campaign followed with a mailer that reminded me of Nixon’s “I am not a crook” speech.
“To be clear—there was no Ponzi scheme, no SEC violation or any violations of Federal or State laws. As for me, I was DISMISSED from the lawsuit by the plaintiffs and found to be INNOCENT by both the investors who sued me and the court.”
The 1962 PAC is trying to do an intervention, which is not pretty when done in a public manner. It appears to be inside baseball. But it must be done. The potential future reverberations are too serious. Politics should be a team sport, but when players don’t follow the game plan, you have unnecessary losses. Last March’s supervisorial special election proved that.
Orange County Republicans, don’t get mad at this PAC, get mad that certain candidates are looking more like spoilers than team players. And another unnecessary loss will not bode well for the Orange County Republican Party in the months and years to come.
