Commentary
I was probably the only political analyst who predicted Annastacia Palaszczuk would beat Campbell Newman in 2015.
That fact alone can explain a lot of her long career.
The expectation that former Premier Campbell Newman would win was huge. It shaped the way the Liberal National Party (LNP) and Labor both ran their campaigns.
It also meant that many ambitious Labor wannabes didn’t run for preselection for the 35 seats that changed from LNP to Labor that election.
Ms. Palaszczuk became the accidental premier, with a mediocre team, deposing a government that had its problems but was heading in the right direction and making impressive gains, and that has shaped the last eight years of government.
Out of the seven Labor members left after the Newman landslide, Anna Bligh, the defeated premier, was unavailable, and out of the other six—Tim Mulherin (Mackay), Curtis Pitt (Mulgrave), Jo-Ann Miller (Bundamba), Bill Byrne (Rockhampton), Annastacia Palaszczuk (Inala), and Desley Scott (Woodridge)—Ms. Annastacia was elected unopposed.
In a less complete defeat, Cameron Dick, Kate Jones, Paul Lucas, Andrew Fraser, and others would have probably been nominated for leader. Without the devastation, Ms. Palaszczuk would have stood no chance.
Which led to the electoral dynamics. As Labor had been so comprehensively wiped out, voters didn’t think there was any chance of them winning.
True, polling had them between 51 and 46 percent of the two-party preferred vote in the lead-up to the election, but there were all those seats they needed to win, and almost no one thought they could do it.
Added to that Labor hadn’t developed, or prosecuted, the policies to look like an alternative government.
This was why Anthony Chisholm, the Labor campaign director, copied what the Liberal-National Coalition had done in the 1995 state election and ran a protest vote campaign.
I knew all about those campaigns, because I had strategised the Liberal one, and also because Mr. Chisholm had read some of my accounts of it.
Protest vote campaigns only really work when the other side doesn’t know what you are up to—there are basic strategies to inoculate against them.
Unaccountably, the Liberal Party didn’t use any of them.
So instead of Mr. Newman scoring a narrow win, probably losing his own seat, but being parachuted back into parliament via the resignation of a backbencher, and a chastened government mending its ways and doing politics smarter, the LNP was traumatised and cast into the wilderness.
Mr. Newman’s philosophy was classic small liberal—low taxes, modest borrowings, efficient government, a muscular social welfare net, and leaving as many decisions up to individuals, families, and businesses as possible. A former army officer, he is also keenly patriotic and family-oriented.
These are all characteristics that could have been used over a couple of terms to make durable inroads in the outer-suburban seats that dictate the results of Australian elections, but he didn’t get that opportunity and was penalised for a rocky first term.
The opposition spent the next almost nine years running away from the Newman legacy. This was another lucky break for Ms. Palaszczuk.
The LNP couldn’t mount an effective criticism of her because as soon as they did, she’d claim they were just Newman acolytes, and they weren’t prepared to defend that position.
Good Leaders Bear Signature Policies
The telling thing about Ms. Palaszczuk’s legacy is that almost all of her colleagues, like the prime minister, who have praised her, have done so for being a woman or being in power for so long.Most really successful leaders have a signature policy that defines them.
For Prime Minister Bob Hawke, it was reconciliation, for Prime Minister John Howard, the GST, or “deciding who will come here and on what terms.”
For the longest-serving Queensland premier, Joh Bjelke-Petersen, it could be abolishing death duties.
For another Queensland Premier Peter Beattie, cleaning up the Labor Party, as well as the “Smart State” initiative.
For Anna?
It might be voluntary assisted dying legislation, and legalising abortion up to term, but in these, she was following others, like Premier Daniel Andrews in Victoria.
The Olympics could be ranked as an achievement, but as more and more of the costs are becoming apparent, the process appears dysfunctional, and as times get tougher for voters, this might not be the initiative to be known for.
Besides, it is not a policy, just an event.
Mr. Newman cut budgets and moved to right-size the public service.
But What Has Palaszczuk Done?
She’s increased the size of the public service by 25 percent since coming to power while the population has only increased by 13 percent.In 2026, state debt is projected to be close to three times what it was in 2012, and state income (effectively taxes) has been increasing by 7.7 percent per annum, including a super-tax on coal which creates a sovereign risk that will discourage more mining.
Projects regularly run over budget, with signature ones like Cross River Rail, the Gabba redevelopment, and the Gold Coast faster rail project running anywhere up to 170 percent over budget.
Tough-on-crime laws were relaxed (although some of this has been reversed after several horrific murders). Hospital waiting lists have increased, despite an increase in hospital beds.
Last year, it was reported that the Queensland police force actually shrank in size.
The construction union, CFMEU, has become entrenched in the building industry, with the “CFMEU tax”—the government’s Best Practice Industry Conditions policy which effectively mandates the CFMEU on large projects—inflating costs by 30-40 percent.
And then there is COVID.
While Ms. Palaszczuk won strong electoral support for her measures, particularly in electorates with an older demographic, that was then, and the population has moved on.
At the time lockdowns were implemented it was obvious they would cost more in health outcomes than they would save.
In retrospect, while that might not be widely recognised, everyone knows they couldn’t be done again because the economy couldn’t afford it.
Unions in the Background
Ms. Palaszczuk’s relationship with the unions bears special mention. I understand that when Ms. Palaszczuk first won the state election, the nurse’s union had an officer sitting in the health minister’s office dictating policy.No wonder that when a rival union, the NPAQ, was formed, the government bent over backwards to change the legislation to try to put them out of business.
The link between Labor and unions is institutionally corrupt.
The unions pay to support the party, and affiliated unions, like United Services, the CFMEU, and ETU, have votes in Labor preselections, at Labor council meetings, and were instrumental in tipping Ms. Palaszczuk out and incoming premier, Steven Miles in.
One of Ms. Palaszczuk’s most cynical acts was a financial gerrymander against the opposition, who received a similar amount from property developers as Labor does from the unions, without the corrupt ties and influence.
These were outlawed based on a Corruption and Crime Commission report that found no evidence of developer corruption of politicians. It was a straight-out financial gerrymander.
In time, Ms. Palaszczuk will likely only be remembered for being there, along with all the other ghosts that haunt our public buildings on honour boards, statues, and effigies. The details of her performance will be lost.
But the next election is due in less than 12 months. Polling and her colleagues, plus their union pay-masters, knew that even if her time wasn’t up now, then theirs probably would be in October next year. She had to go.
It says something about her that she ultimately went of her own volition. Many politicians would not have ultimately had the sense. Her departure was in many ways as surprising as her arrival.
