California desperately needs a two-party system. As R Street Institute Western Regional Director Steven Greenhut recently pointed out, the state’s poor quality of leadership largely is due to this being “a one-party state, where internal party considerations matter more than policy credentials or basic competence.”
A new Berkeley IGS Poll of the state’s registered voters shows Californians are starting to get fed up with the one-party dominance and lack of choice. Released Feb. 15, the poll shows Gov. Gavin Newsom’s poll numbers dropping sharply the past 17 months. He went from 64 percent approval in Sept. 2020, to 50 percent in September 2021, finally down to 48 percent in the new poll.
His disapproval correspondingly has risen, from just 36 percent in Sept. 2020, to 42 percent in Sept. 2021, to 47 percent now. The latter is about equal to his 48 percent approval.
Not surprisingly, in the new poll Democrats still approve of Newsom by 74 percent, while Republicans disapprove by 90 percent. But what’s scary for him is No Party Preference clocks at 51 percent disapproval, a majority.
The poll found Newsom scored poorly on the issues I have been covering here in The Epoch Times. Homelessness: 66 percent disapproval, up 12 percentage points from Sept. 2020. Crime: 51 percent disapproval, up 16 points.
I suspect the crime numbers only will get worse for him. New data show homicides rose 12 percent in Los Angeles in 2021. Amazingly, Mayor Eric Garcetti said it wasn’t as bad as it seemed because the rate was not as bad in the second half of the year. Like Newsom, Garcetti is a Democrat who hasn’t had any competition from Republicans or any other party.
Garcetti didn’t mention the crime spree also is connected to Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón’s “soft on crime” policies. On Jan. 28, the L.A. County Registrar of Voters approved signature gathering to recall Gascón.
In the poll, on jobs and the economy, 32 percent said Newsom has done excellent/good, vs. 39 percent poor/very poor. That’s what happens when inflation hits 7.5 percent, according to the U.S. Labor Department number released Feb. 10.
But even that could get worse. The Producer Price Index number released Feb. 15 came in at a 9.7 percent annual rate. Even if inflation abates the rest of the year, those high numbers are baked into the system. It’s almost certain drivers will be paying the high prices, such as $5 gas per gallon—or more—come election day.
It’s true Newsom is a governor, not the president. But President Biden is a fellow Democrat, as are the majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. They passed last year’s massive spending bills that flooded the economy with new money that’s now pushing up prices.
And Newsom has backed the state’s anti-carbon policies, even signing an executive order banning the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. In his Jan. 10 budget proposal for fiscal year 2022-23, which begins on July 1, he did propose postponing the scheduled gas tax increase for this year. But that’s just a drop in the gas tank of price increases.
California’s unemployment rate for December was 6.5 percent, more than half again above the national rate of 4 percent. That’s the worst of any state in the country. In our main rival states, Florida’s rate is 4.1 percent and Texas’ is 5.0 percent.
If a recession hits hard, it’s back to double-digit unemployment for California. As during the Subprime Meltdown, when unemployment here hit 12.6 percent in Jan. 2010. Those massive state surpluses also could melt into deficits faster than you can say “Gov. Gray Davis.”
It’s true Newsom handily defeated the recall attempt against him last September. But a lot has changed in five months.
Biden’s own approval rating last was above water on Aug. 12, at 51 percent, according to Reuters/Ipsos. That was just before the Aug. 15 fall of Kabul in Afghanistan to the Taliban. On Aug. 26, 13 American troops were killed by a bomb at Kabul airport, as well as 70 Afghans, leading to charges of incompetence in the Biden team.
Since then, Biden’s approval has dropped to 44 percent on Feb. 15. That poll also found the economy was the biggest concern to all Americans, at 22 percent. Next were crime at 11 percent, public health 9 percent and health care 9 percent.
It’s still going to be a tough slog for Republicans in California to win a gubernatorial election for the first time since 2006. But another number on the Berkeley IGS poll shows just 36 percent think the state is headed in the right direction.
If Republicans can get their act together with decent candidates for governor and the other offices, the state just might have competitive races again.
