François Legault became premier of Quebec in 2018. His right-leaning party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), won 74 of 125 seats in the provincial National Assembly that year, and thanks to Legault’s popularity, his party was rewarded in the 2022 election with an increase in its total seat count to 90. This was one of the largest political majorities in Quebec in decades. He looked nearly invincible at times, too.
The government was aided by a poor Liberal showing (finished fourth out of the five major parties in the popular vote, but won enough seats to form the official opposition) and the stunning collapse of the sovereigntist/social democratic Parti Québécois (worst-ever election result with three seats).
The premier went from near-invincibility to seemingly unstoppable as 2023 rolled around. It appeared the only way to stop his political momentum would be a miracle.
Which is exactly what happened.
How did Legault go from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows?
The CAQ made a string of political mistakes last year. Caroline Plante and Jacob Serebrin’s CP article highlighted several egregious errors. This includes: Quebecers being “unable to receive services from the province’s automobile insurance board—which issues driver’s licences and registers vehicles—for several weeks due to problems with a new digital platform,” breaking a key 2022 election promise by stating it “would not build a car tunnel under the St. Lawrence River between Quebec City and its suburbs"; a $7 million subsidy to the NHL for the Los Angeles Kings to play two pre-season games in Quebec City one week after its economic update “gave the province’s food banks $8 million less than they had asked for”; and justifying a government bill “that increased members’ salaries immediately by 30 per cent, to $131,766” when three in four Quebecers opposed it, according to a Leger poll commissioned by Québec solidaire.
It’s a miracle the CAQ is still in second place in the polls, all things considered.
Another significant problem is Eric Duhaime’s Conservatives are becoming a potential alternative for conservatives and libertarians. Since the Union Nationale folded in 1989, right-leaning Quebecers have been all over the map in terms of political support. Some went half-heartedly for the Liberals to prevent the PQ from forming government. Others voted for Mario Dumont’s Action démocratique du Québec, followed by the CAQ after they merged in 2012. The two parties, both moderately right-leaning, in effect became the true representatives of Quebec’s political right by default.
While Duhaime’s Conservatives are rising in the polls, they don’t hold any seats and have never elected a MNA. Claire Samson, who formerly sat as a Conservative between 2021 and 2022, was elected under the CAQ banner in 2014 and crossed the floor. This could change if the government’s downward spiral continues, however.
Legault won’t face the electorate until 2026. Regardless, he needs to quickly recapture the public’s trust. What does he have to do to regain the political momentum in 2024 that he lost in 2023?
The premier should employ fiscal conservative policies like lower taxes, smaller government and private enterprise, and spend taxpayer dollars more prudently. He should emphasize personal freedom, and reject his province’s historical nanny-state mentality. He should encourage more business opportunities and investments through tax credits, and international companies to invest and participate in the growth of Quebec’s economy.
If Legault wants to remain Quebec premier, he would be wise to reconsider this political path immediately.
