Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently completed a “chief supplicant” mission to Beijing on June 19.
The Optics
The Biden administration’s China policy can be construed as “talk-talk,” that is, simply communicating without regard to actions or outcomes is of supreme importance. Never mind the historical instances in which other countries used “talk-talk” strategies to camouflage real intentions right up until the moment of a military attack. Examples of this include the nearly continual Nazi-Soviet diplomatic dialog prior to the Wehrmacht’s launch of Operation Barbarossa on June 22, 1941, and Japanese Ambassador (and retired admiral) Kichisaburo Nomura’s disingenuous discussions with Secretary of State Cordell Hull and other U.S. diplomats in the months prior to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941.Xi probably could not have choreographed Blinken’s trip any better from his point of view. It is no secret that the Biden administration seeks to reset U.S.-China policies to the engagement paradigm that existed before the Trump administration, with no limitations on Beijing’s behavior whatsoever. Blinken’s visit to Beijing reflected this desire and gained nothing of substance except a last-minute photo op with Xi. A photo op is no substitute for negotiations on difficult issues of importance to Americans, which is what should be expected of a U.S. secretary of state.
Acquiescing to Blinken’s trip was one of Xi’s infamous “win-win” scenarios (with the usual Chinese characteristics): Blinken got his photo op, he confirmed several points of critical importance to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the communists themselves gave up nothing. And the optics were delicious for Xi as he sat at the head of the negotiating table, which gave the appearance of presiding over some of the diplomatic exchanges.
The Giveaways
During his trip, Blinken didn’t gain much other than a short list of CCP demands necessary for future “talk-talk” progress. Blinken has been widely quoted as informing Beijing that “We [America] do not support Taiwan independence,” which most sage observers view as a green light to communist China to invade Taiwan at its leisure. This dangerous statement was sandwiched in four promises that Chinese state-run media Xinhua claimed were made by Blinken: “[The United States] does not seek ‘a new cold war,’ does not seek to change China’s [political] system, does not seek to oppose China through strengthening alliances, does not support Taiwan independence.”Expectations
Improving bilateral relations is the responsibility of the United States, according to the Chinese regime. In fact, the CCP has set expectations for future discussions that were buried in the “candid” and “constructive” talks between Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Beijing, including “respecting China” and its legitimate rights and interests (as defined by the CCP), stopping the “suppression of Chinese technological development” (through trade sanctions), stopping U.S. interference in China’s internal affairs, and ending individual sanctions on senior communists.Concluding Thoughts
Not one substantive issue was discussed with China’s leadership during Blinken’s two-day visit to Beijing. In particular, there was no insistence by the United States that China adheres to the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act that obligate all parties to a “peaceful resolution” of Taiwan’s future. The visit was a public relations triumph for Xi Jinping, with a U.S. secretary of state shaking his hand in a last-minute photo op. The psychological interpretation was unmistakable.Meanwhile, at the insistence of the CCP, future talks will depend on Washington meeting Beijing’s preconditions: respect for China (and its definition of “legitimate interests”), ending talk about the “China threat,” ending sanctions and tariffs, and restoring trade relations to status quo ante 2017. Given the Biden administration’s “talk-talk” priority, the CCP will likely throw the United States a bone by acceding to the resumption of military-to-military talks (which costs them nothing) in exchange for a real concession from the United States.