Decades ago, British Prime Minister John Major announced a revolutionary approach to budgeting. Alas, he didn’t implement it and became a footnote to history. But the idea, sound in principle, was that instead of duct-taping this year’s budget together from the wreckage of last year’s while cramming in some unaffordable voter-bait baubles, they would start from scratch by deciding what they needed and what they could afford, then work out the details within those firm big limits. Which brings me to Canadian defence.
That it’s a hideous mess no sane person familiar with it now denies. It’s not just that we conspicuously lack the resources to defend ourselves against Fredonia or Grand Fenwick, let alone the sinister state and non-state actors now troubling the world, or even assisting our less hapless allies in doing so. We can’t manage procurement, recruitment, or almost literally anything else. Even our feel-good rhetoric now seems as depleted and obsolete as the black powder shells our navy still had on the eve of World War I.
So yes, it’s the classic problem of focusing on draining a swamp while up to your hip-waders in alligators. Anywhere you start you’ll be assailed by terrible practical problems, including the malevolent persistence of DEI in an especially unsuitable setting. But since John Major isn’t using his principles, let’s borrow them.
Suppose we, a word here aspiring to include the current defence minister and anyone who subsequently lands that prune of a job, start by taking a blank sheet of paper and writing a list of things we’d need so Canada might be slightly self-reliant in military matters and significantly a useful and appreciated member of the Western alliance.
Oh. I see that you started with MONEY in big block letters. OK. Then SOLDIERS and EQUIPMENT. Fair enough. But let’s put first things first and, after writing “SOLDIERS” (meaning all three services), put a number. Say, 120,000. Current nominal CAF strength is 68,000, though one cannot believe nearly anything that comes out of Ottawa. And even if it’s true, we could not now deploy a single battalion, 1,000 fighting persons, for actual overseas combat. Possibly not even for a hollow display of resolve.
When I say 120,000, I mean regular forces. We also need at least 40,000 Reservists, whose social as well as military role is often underestimated even by the professionals, never mind everyone else.
I know, I know, we couldn’t recruit them even if we could pay them. Pesky alligators again. (Or, this being Canada, muskrats and a slough or something.) But the whole point of our exercise is that, however hard it would be to get what we need, we’ll never even try if we don’t face frankly what it is.
So now MONEY. Again, this being Canada, it’s almost impossible to find out what we actually spend on defence, or try to. They don’t even list it in budgets anymore, which tells you a lot about how much they care, or think we do. But it seems to be just south of $30 billion a year. It needs to be north of 60.
Here come the muskrats again. We can’t possibly find that kind of money. Though if you want, say, $15 billion for an EV battery factory, or a COVID spending surge of $300 billion, it’s growing on trees. But again, I’m listing what we need, and we need it.
EQUIPMENT. Yes, generically. Specifically rifles, pistols, guns, and shells shells shells. The Ukraine war revealed that 21st-century warfare remarkably resembles the two world wars in the crucial necessity of firing literally thousands of rounds a day. I doubt we have 5,000 that would work. We’d need a stockpile of 100,000 to sustain combat operations for just three months. If not, don’t pretend.
Also submarines. Nuclear-powered or very modern diesel. At least a dozen. In wars, things blow up. And combat-capable fighter aircraft. Including drones. AI and robots scare me, but if the bad guys are going to use them, we need them. Hundreds. And missiles, offensive and defensive. Tens of thousands. Tanks? Maybe not. Manned fighter aircraft designed in 2015 to fight in 2045? I’m not convinced. But you get the general idea.
We need at least twice as much money and people as we now have, ten times as many weapons and newer, and literally hundreds of times as much ammunition. Plus fuel and food and so on and so on.
Tricky? Nobody said it would be easy. But without a credible way of getting it and a stated intention of doing so, the real plan is to be helpless and hope someone saves us. If so, put a paper bag on your head and admit it. If not, put a determined look on your face and get started. Nothing less can work.
