Commentary
Since Oct. 7, 2023, communist China under its leader, Xi Jinping, has ramped up its pro-Hamas, anti-Israeli rhetoric in the
media and at the
United Nations, consistent with its geopolitical goal of establishing itself as a leader of the
Global South.
But China’s demonization of Israel also furthers a much higher domestic priority for Xi—the
subjugation of Taiwan, on which so much of his reputation depends.
If China invades Taiwan, both sides would suffer catastrophic losses, but Taiwan could ultimately persevere, according to
analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, RAND, and the U.S. Air Force using war-game
models. The decisive factor in China’s defeat, the analysts predict, would be
drone technology, perhaps augmented by the kind of weapons that some say Taiwan is believed to have been secretly developing with Israel.
Little is known and less is admitted about the military alliance between the two countries. Although Taiwan
denies their collaboration, many consider the ties between the two to be unmistakable. Taiwan’s 2017 Chien Hsiang killer
drone—a loitering munition—is virtually identical in both form and function to the Harpy, Israel’s revolutionary loitering munition. Advanced versions of the Chien Hsiang then incorporated features seen in the Harop, Israel’s own upgraded drone.
These drones, which can be produced relatively inexpensively and in large numbers, are suicide drones, able to
target radar, sink small enemy craft, and swarm, blind, and disable large Chinese ships, preventing amphibious attacks on Taiwan’s shores.
The possibility that Taiwan and Israel are cooperating in other military fields must give China pause, especially since Iran’s April 14 attack on Israel involving more than 300 missiles and drones had a 99 percent-plus failure rate. China would not want to entertain the risk that Taiwan, aided by Israeli missile defense technology, could neuter a similar barrage from China.
At times over decades, China thought Israel could be useful to it. Until
2000, when the United States persuaded Israel to cancel its sale to China of the Phalcon, an advanced, airborne early-warning system, and to refrain from selling China other strategic military goods, China was benefiting from its steadily increasing military purchases from Israel.
Israel’s economic usefulness to China has also diminished. Since 2020, because of concern over China’s outsized role in building and possibly controlling Israeli infrastructure, Israel established a foreign investment regulator to severely
curtail China’s ability to win tenders in infrastructure projects.
Coupled with Israel’s failure to help China is Israel’s potential to hurt China. If an Iran–Israel war erupts, an Iranian loss could overthrow the Mullahs and return Iran to the Western camp, costing China a strategic military ally and a major energy supplier.
In short, China has little to lose and much to gain should Israel cease to exist.
China, despite its periodic military and economic relations with Israel, has never been a friend to Israel. Mao Zedong likened Israel to Taiwan because they both had ties to the United States,
saying, “Imperialism is afraid of China and of the Arabs. Israel and Formosa [Taiwan] are bases of imperialism in Asia.”
To
support the anti-Israel Arab cause, Mao armed the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and other Palestinian organizations in their attacks against Israel.
China was the first non-Arab country to
recognize the PLO. At the U.N., China has been a steadfast opponent of Israel and supporter of its enemies, including by backing U.N. General Assembly
Resolution 3379, which equated Zionism with racism and subjected Israel to unprecedented criticism.
For Xi, who fashions himself as Mao’s ideological successor, Israel is a bane. Next to the United States, Israel has been Taiwan’s largest
military supplier and often a more reliable supplier. In 1975, when the United States, under pressure from China, refused to sell Taiwan Sidewinder missiles, Israel provided Taiwan with both anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. When the United States refused to supply Taiwan with fighter jets, Taiwan
collaborated with Israel to upgrade a home-grown fleet. Israel’s spy satellites are also
reported to have been at the service of Taiwan, enabling the detection deep into China of all missile launch bases that potentially threaten Taiwan.
Xi and the Chinese Communist Party know that in an invasion of Taiwan, Israel could be the difference between victory and defeat. Because Israel stands between China and Taiwan, Chinese communist leaders understand that Israel must first be neutralized, or destroyed, before Xi can credibly threaten Taiwan with conquest if it refuses to be brought to heel.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
