A Real Alternative to the CCP
Domestically, every day Taiwan represents a real political and economic alternative to the ruling CCP. For decades, Taiwan has managed to grow its economy despite not having the CCP in charge. It also enjoys much greater freedoms than Mainland China.From 1979 onward, the tacit deal between the CCP and the Chinese people has been the Party will deliver economic prosperity and the people will not challenge the communists’ rule over them. As is widely known, economic growth is the CCP’s main claim to political legitimacy.
China’s Economic Problems Mount
Regardless of the “official” economic figures on GDP growth and productivity that the state produces, China’s sluggish economy is choking on debt, fraud, waste and corruption. Given the trade war with the United States and the Eurozone’s entry into recession, this recent downward economic trend is expected to continue. It may be China’s worst economy in two decades. At some point, the CCP may well face a crisis in legitimacy that expresses itself in rising civil unrest—if it hasn’t already.Taiwan’s “Military Threat”
Militarily, Taiwan has no ambitions of invading China. But its geographical location puts it athwart of China’s major ports. Coupled with the island nation’s close military cooperation with the United States, in the event of a conflict, Taiwan along with the United States could effectively block material and supplies from entering China from China’s key entry points. That would include up to 86 percent of China’s maritime oil imports and over 50 percent of its natural gas, which would cripple China’s economy and military.Taking Taiwan as a Top Military Objective for China
That’s why, with the U.S.–China relations deteriorating, the leaders of Taiwan and Japan, along with U.S. defense establishment view it likely that China will move on Taiwan sooner than later. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s rhetoric has underscored that point on several recent occasions, saying:Taiwan and Others Take China’s Threats Seriously
China has ramped up its rhetoric and military activities aimed at Taiwan since the nation elected pro-independence politician Tsai Ing-wen for president in 2016. In response, President Tsai has ordered the Taiwanese military to increase defensive preparations to counter an attack from China that could occur at any time, noting that Taiwan “must be prepared at all times.”US Responds to China’s Threats
The Trump Administration holds similar views about China’s military build-up and their intentions behind it. The U.S. response has been to deepen its military and diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. Concurrently, it has continued to conduct naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait and other sensitive locales in the region against China’s warnings not to. Additionally, American defense spending is increasing in response to China’s growing power and defense planners are shifting more weight into the Asian-Pacific region.Taiwan as Both Problem and Solution?
Ultimately, Taiwan may be portrayed by China’s leadership as both the cause and solution to their problems and long-term goals. They would certainly point to Taiwan’s U.S.-assisted military build-up as a provocation and their close ties to the United States as an obstacle to their own U.S. relationship. And as noted earlier, the Taipei presents a whole host of potential threats to the continuation of CCP rule merely by its own existence.The bottom line is that the CCP must have control over every aspect of Chinese life if it is to remain in power. But in order to maintain control, the CCP must retain legitimacy in the eyes of a significant portion of their society. Even the most committed of communist ideologues knows that a party of around 90 million members can’t rule a nation of 1.4 billion people for very long without legitimacy. For the CCP and Xi Jinping, the “renegade province” may soon provide a convenient and necessary adversary upon which to both lay their own failures as well as a path “to remedy” them in order to retain their monopoly on power.