Since Feb. 24, 2022, the day that Russian troops invaded Ukraine, the world thought Russia would hold the reins of Ukraine in three months and conquer the capital city of Kyiv in three days. Still, the war has been going on for two years and three months, and there is no sign of it ending soon.
US, Europe Step Up Aid to Ukraine
Independent TV producer Li Jun noted that the fifth summit around the Russia-Ukraine war is to be convened in Switzerland on June 15 and 16, with 160 countries invited to participate.This summit would continue to discuss peace initiatives proposed by the Ukrainian president at the end of 2022. These initiatives mainly include the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, the restoration of the 1991 Russian-Ukrainian border, the convening of a peace conference, the signing of an international treaty, a war crimes trial against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and the issue of nuclear safety.
“With these aids, I think Russia’s current artillery advantage could be reversed, and the dynamic of the war would change.” Mr. Li said.
Heng He, a political and economic commentator, believes that the reason why Russia was able to launch the attack this year was largely because Ukraine was short of ammunition, and its total population is four times less than that of Russia. “So if Ukraine expects to prolong the resistance against Russia, its casualties would be much lower than those of the Russian side, and that’s if there is a sufficient supply of firepower.”
On the other hand, in Mr. Heng’s opinion, Russia has temporarily obtained some less-advanced ammunition from North Korea that is not likely to have any special advantage in precision guidance.
‘Nuclear Armament Is a Counterbalance’
According to Mr. Heng, faced with growing Western support for Ukraine, Russia has been threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons, But “nuclear armament is a counterbalance to all, no one dares to fight first, and so far, this balance has never been broken.”“For Russia, the use of tactical nuclear weapons will not do any good. If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, then NATO forces will eliminate all the Russian forces that invade Ukraine. That is to say, if Russia uses nuclear weapons, then Russia will confront NATO.”
“Therefore, Russia would think twice before using tactical nuclear weapons, and I don’t think it is likely to use it to invite NATO to join in the war.”
A Marathon War Involving More Political Forces
Shi Shan, senior editor and chief writer of the Chinese language Epoch Times, shared that the Russian-Ukrainian war is likely to become a protracted tug-of-war, which may last for many years.Mr. Shi believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to fight a protracted war. In the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia used professional military staff as the main force; while there were only new recruits on the battlefield, some were only trained for two weeks.
Guo Jun, editor-in-chief of Hong Kong Epoch Times, believes that the outbreak of the war in Ukraine has led to a significant increase in Europe’s dependence on NATO and the United States, and the war will likely continue until both sides are exhausted.
“At the beginning, everyone overestimated Russia, thinking that Russia’s military power was so potent that the war at its doorstep should have been over very quickly, but in reality, Russia failed to do so as its military power had declined a lot. Now many people have gone to the opposite opinion that ‘Russia is weak.’ The fact is Russia inherited the huge military-industrial system of the Soviet Union, which is still largely in place.”
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is one of the countries that would like to see the war continue, Ms. Guo said. “First of all, the marathon war reduces the pressure from the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region. Secondly, Russia is revitalizing the Chinese military industry, increasingly relying on the CCP for funds, equipment, and electronic components.
“Several other countries in the authoritarian camp are also becoming more and more dependent on the Chinese Communist regime, which is also very favorable to the CCP.”
Beginning of a New Global Landscape?
In Ms. Guo’s view, the Russian-Ukrainian war has become a focal point of comparison between the two camps in the world, and it seems likely that the stalemate will continue for a long time, turning into a geopolitical tension similar to that of the Cold War from 1947 to 1991.
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union never had direct military conflicts, and all conflicts were proxy, especially in the Asian, African, and Latin American regions, according to Ms. Guo.
“The Russian-Ukrainian War can also be seen as a continuation of the Cold War and a proxy war. Between the U.S. and Russia, and even between European countries and Russia, direct military confrontation was avoided, and many hoped to ‘confine’ the war to Ukrainian soil.”
Ms. Guo believes the Russia-Ukraine war could be a crucial one in shaping the future geopolitical landscape. “For example, the Cold War began with the Korean War, which lasted three years, and the CCP and the Soviet Union chose to accept an armistice, and the world entered a period of Cold War.”
“In history, almost all the major global changes begin with a war.” The First World War led to the collapse of four empires: the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the German Empire, the Russian Tsarist Empire, and the Ottoman Empire. The Second World War can be seen as an extension of the First World War, but it had a similar consequence that brought about the collapse of the British Empire and the independence of the colonies, as per Ms. Guo.
“The disintegration of totalitarian imperialism usually heralds a dramatic change. What we are seeing in the battle in Ukraine is the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Thus, the war in Ukraine is only the beginning of a new global landscape,” Ms. Guo said.
