Commentary
(Part One of this two-part series is “The Early Candidates Announce.”)
On April 25, President Joe Biden launched his 2024 reelection bid. To me, at least, even in the heavily rehearsed and edited announcement video, he looked frail and partly incoherent. Americans seem to agree. An NBC News poll released the day before showed 70 percent of them don’t want him to run again.
Which brings up various succession scenarios, both for him and for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a top possibility to succeed Biden. And if Newsom is promoted, what does that mean for his own successor as California governor? What if Newsom has to wait until 2028, fulfilling his full second term as governor? Some scenarios:
President Joe Biden during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on April 26, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
Scenario 1: Biden Drops Out, Newsom Goes for It
Biden could decide later this year or early next year not to run and cancel his campaign. In that case, the field would be open for the Democratic nomination. Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris, also a Californian, both would jump in immediately. They would join those who already have announced: Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.If Newsom is elected president in 2024, he would be succeeded as governor by Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis. She would fulfill the final two years of his term, then almost certainly run for reelection in 2028. The California Democratic Party is very hierarchal. As I noted in Part One, it’s hard to see someone seriously challenging her from her own party.
In 2018, Sen. Dianne Feinstein was challenged by former state Senate President pro Tem Kevin de León, currently a Los Angeles councilman. Due to the state’s peculiar Top Two system, they were from the same party. Already frail, and with de León campaigning on being younger, she still won, 54 percent to 46 percent. That was a falloff from her 63 percent to 37 percent victory in 2012 over Republican Elizabeth Emken.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after participating in a swearing in ceremony for Eric Garcetti as ambassador to India at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington on March 24, 2023. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Scenario 2: Harris Replaced on the VP Ticket
Harris currently is Biden’s running mate. As the New York Times reported Tuesday, “The vice president will be central to President Biden’s reelection efforts, particularly on the issue of abortion access. Both critics and supporters say the increased spotlight is a good thing.”But what if she is haunted by the criticisms of the past four years? That she is a terrible speaker and campaigner? Then the party replaces her with Newsom as the vice presidential nominee, with Biden on the top of the ticket? Then Biden-Newsom wins? It could happen.
In that scenario, for California, Newsom would again be replaced by Kounalakis as governor, as in Scenario 1 above.
Scenario 3: Biden Quits, Harris Becomes President
This is a real possibility. The big question there is: How would she perform? Would her shaky performance as VP continue as president, or would she grow in the job? Lincoln’s experience in office when he became president was as a state legislator and, briefly, a back-bench U.S. congressman. Harry Truman was an experienced U.S. Senator—but one who, even as vice president, had been kept in the dark on the atomic bomb project.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a press conference in Sacramento, Calif., on Feb. 1, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
In this case, Newsom could possibly have a shot at the vice presidency under Harris. Or, if she stumbled, Newsom could even challenge her. In 1976, President Gerald Ford was seen as weak—even as a stumblebum, mocked on “Saturday Night Live.” He was challenged and almost toppled for the Republican nomination by Ronald Reagan, who went on to win it all four years later. In 1980, President Jimmy Carter also was seen as weak, and he was challenged by Sen. Edward Kennedy, who also lost.
If Newsom challenged Harris and got the nomination, then won in November 2024, Kounalakis would again be elevated to governor of California.
Scenario 4: Newsom Waits, Runs for President in 2028
In this case, a lot depends on who is president in 2028. Some sub-scenarios:- Biden is reelected in 2024 and makes it to 2028. Then it’s an open field and Newsom would be the favorite against Harris or anybody else.
- Harris is president and herself runs for reelection in 2028. This would be much like Scenario 3, above, with Newsom challenging a sitting president Harris.
- Harris is president and, for some reason, doesn’t run for reelection in 2028. Again, Newsom would be the favorite to get the nomination.
Conclusion: Many Paths to the Oval Office
Newsom has shown himself to be a skilled politician, able to take advantage of his opponents’ mistakes. In the mid 2010s, when he was lieutenant governor and Harris was the state’s attorney general, they divvied up two posts soon to be opening up. Harris took the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Barbara Boxer, and Newsom of course took the governorship. The division suited both well, with each—as detailed above—having highly possible shots at becoming president. The main thing not widely known then was Harris’s difficulties in campaigning and speaking in public.
The White House in Washington on March 22, 2023. Richard Moore/The Epoch Times
Finally, there are, of course, other Democratic candidates out there seeking a promotion to chief executive. The PredictIt betting site lists the top candidates after Biden, who is at 79¢ cents:
- Newsom 11¢
- Harris 7¢
- Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker 3¢ (family has billions; the Pritzkers back in San Francisco also have been big Newsom backers)
- Hillary Clinton 2¢
- Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg 2¢
- Sen. Bernie Sanders 1¢ (still has the Bernie Bros.)
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 1¢ (turns 35 next year)
- Sen. Amy Klobuchar 1¢ (ran well in 2020)
With numerous domestic issues boiling, and the international situation grave over Ukraine and Taiwan and elsewhere, the choice before American voters in 2024 will be momentous.
John Seiler’s email: [email protected]
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
