An energy policy that bans investment in some technologies based on ideological views and ignores security of supply is doomed to a strepitous failure.
The energy crisis in the European Union wasn’t created by market failures or a lack of alternatives. It was created by political nudging and imposition.
Renewable energies are a positive force within a balanced energy mix, not on their own, due to the volatile and intermittent nature of the technology. Politicians have imposed an unstable energy mix by banning base technologies that work almost 100 percent of the time, and this has made prices soar for consumers and threatened security of supply.
However, von der Leyen’s messages have two problems. Europe’s energy crisis is due to intervention on a massive scale. Furthermore, massively increasing renewables doesn’t eliminate the risk of dependence on Russia or other commodity suppliers.
The European electricity market is probably the most intervened in the world. More intervention isn’t going to solve the problems created by a political design that has made most countries’ energy mix expensive, volatile, and intermittent.
Ideology is a bad partner in energy.
Between 70 and 75 percent of the electricity tariff in most European countries is regulated costs, subsidies, and taxes set by governments and, in the remaining part, the so-called “liberalized” generation, the cost of CO2 allowances has skyrocketed due to those same governments that limit supply of permits and impose an energy mix by political decisions.
It’s surprising to read that Europe’s power markets are “free markets” when governments impose the technologies within the energy mix, monopolize and limit licenses, prohibit investment in some technologies or close others, as well as force the rising cost of CO2 permits by limiting their supply.
European power prices aren’t expensive by chance, but by design. The exponential increase in subsidies, regulated costs, and the price of CO2 emission rights are political decisions.
Eliminating baseload energies (nuclear, hydro) that work all the time and replacing them with renewables that need a backup of natural gas and heavy investments in infrastructure is expensive. It has been throughout Europe, and it will continue to be.
An energy transition must be competitive and guarantee security of supply, or it will not be a transition. More intervention doesn’t solve the problems.
European governments should worry about erasing from household bills all those items that have nothing to do with electricity consumption, including the cost of past planning errors, and should lower taxes that are simply unaffordable. Those items should be in the national budget, and other non-essential expenses should be cut to avoid rising deficits.
The market isn’t always perfect, but government intervention is always imperfect.
Governments are awfully bad at picking winners, but they’re even worse at picking losers. Constant intervention leaves a trail of debt and cost overruns that all consumers pay.
What happens when the government intervenes? It closes nuclear power out of ideological obsession and then depends on 40 percent of its energy mix from coal, lignite, and gas, like Germany. Or it brings its flagship public company to the brink of bankruptcy by intervening in tariffs, like France. Or, like Spain, it creates a diplomatic conflict with its largest natural gas supplier, Algeria, and, with it, has doubled its gas purchases from Russia from the beginning of the war to July 2022.
Now, the European Union is rushing to install new floating regasification plants, more than thirty. The problem? Practically all the liquefied natural gas ships for this winter have already been contracted.
The same governments that refused to strengthen natural gas supply chains when it was cheap are now rushing to spend vast amounts on low-efficiency solutions.
Installing renewables doesn’t eliminate dependence on natural gas. Renewables are, by definition, intermittent and volatile, as well as difficult to plan. Additionally, installing more renewables requires huge spending on transmission and distribution investments, which makes the tariff more expensive.
Investing more in renewables is positive, but no politician can say that renewables are the only solution. The storage problem, the astronomical cost of a battery network, and the necessary infrastructure, estimated at more than 2 trillion euros if it were feasible, are key factors. If today Europe had a 100 percent solar and wind mix, it would be excessively volatile and intermittent, and in periods of low solar and wind availability it would increase dependence on natural gas, which is necessary as a backup, and the need for hydro and nuclear, baseload energies that work all the time. Additionally, renewables, which are positive in a balanced energy mix, don’t reduce dependence on other countries. Countries become dependent on China and other nations for lithium, aluminum, copper, etc.
Installing 45 percent renewables in the mix doesn’t eliminate the dependence on natural gas; it only reduces it slightly in the part of the renewable load factor that is more stable (part of wind production). In fact, periods of low wind energy and low solar yield would be extremely likely and, as we have already experienced, those coincide with periods in which gas and coal are more expensive due to greater demand.
If there’s one thing that this crisis shows us, it’s that what Europe needs is more market and less intervention. Europe arrived at this crisis due to a combination of arrogance and ignorance on the part of the legislators who control the energy mix. The importance of a balanced mix, with nuclear, hydro, gas, and renewables is more evident every day.
Interventionist energy policy has failed miserably. More intervention is not going to solve it.
