In modern warfare, first-person view (FPV) drones play an increasingly decisive role. In the Russia-Ukraine War, it has become an indispensable weapon for both sides, with artificial intelligence (AI) being increasingly integrated into the new weapons system.
Countless online videos have emerged depicting the destruction of enemy equipment and personnel on the Ukrainian battlefield in excruciating detail. The fearful expressions in the final moments of life and the agonizing struggles amidst bullets, explosions, and flames were displayed by both sides to showcase their victory on the battlefield. FPV drones are able to create and record these brutal scenes at the same time.
The destructive power and lethality of large-scale drone swarms significant psychological impact on enemy forces along with the physical destruction. Videos captured from FPV drones circulating on social media show frontline units being obliterated by drones, imposing fear and psychological trauma upon frontline soldiers. It sends a message to the enemy that assassin drones are constantly monitoring their actions. In situations where both sides suffer from ammunition shortages, drones are used to compensate for insufficient ground firepower, rapidly changing the dynamics of modern warfare.
Drone Warfare
Both Kyiv and Moscow have recognized the immense potential of drones on the battlefield, but currently, Russia holds the advantage in terms of quantity and capability. They possess a considerable number of Orlan-10, ZALA, Shahed, and other drones, whose killing capabilities have been proven on the battlefield, causing damage not only to vital Ukrainian infrastructure but also resulting in significant civilian casualties.On the Ukrainian side, they are increasingly aware that in the absence of timely replenishment of ground artillery ammunition, drones have become an essential component in the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set an ambitious goal of manufacturing one million drones in 2024. In the first two months of this year alone, Ukraine has produced 200,000 drones. Many of these are small FPV attack drones.
Dmytro Prodanyuk, co-founder of the Ukrainian drone maker Wild Hornets, stated that the figure of one million is quite realistic, with Ukraine’s current output several times higher than six months ago.
“The production and logistics are sufficient. We believe there will be not one million, but more like two or three million drones this year,” he said.
Ukrainian Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov also believes that two million plus drones would be possible with enough funding.
Initially, few in the Ukrainian military believed in the capabilities of FPV drones until frontline units began equipping and utilizing these small drones, achieving significant battlefield effects.
Future AI Involvement
Future developments in attack drones are likely to involve AI. The first batch of Ukrainian FPV drones with automatic target recognition capabilities has already been deployed. Autonomous guidance systems react faster and have higher hit rates than skilled human pilots.Currently, AI has not fully taken over human functions, but with the increasing autonomy of attack drones and the widespread use of fully automatic drones, the situation is likely to change. The first noticeable change will be that more drones can fly simultaneously as there are no limitations from radio links and bandwidth. Autonomous attack drones will be able to launch attacks simultaneously on all targets within an area, tempting both sides to accelerate their development.
Mr. Prodanyuk believes that the first autonomous attack drones using AI will arrive in about half a year, and about a year later, we may see large-scale use of drones capable of independently selecting and engaging targets.
The potential impact of large-scale autonomous drone attacks remains uncertain. However, based on the current use of drones, drones may potentially replace other ground firepower, becoming the dominant force on the battlefield.
In Mr. Prodanyuk’s remarks, we did not see a fear of AI taking over killing machines or a moral commitment to humanity in the face of autonomous lethal weapons. In such difficult times, it is not optimistic that Ukraine can still consider and manage its moral responsibilities as a nation.
Russia, on the other hand, is ruthless in pursuing war objectives, even repeatedly threatening the West with nuclear weapons to stop support for Ukraine. In terms of AI’s involvement in war, unless limited by technological conditions, Russia is unlikely to voluntarily abandon the development of more efficient AI-based weapons systems for other moral obligations.
Unfortunately, the likelihood of the first appearance of autonomous killing machines on the Ukrainian battlefield is high, requiring the international community to take precautious measures. However, the possibility of making such efforts and achieving tangible results seems slim. To date, the international community has not reached a consensus on this issue. Although the United States has proposed restrictions on the development of autonomous lethal weapons, many countries, including China and Russia, have yet to make any substantive responses.
