Military Deterrence
What is military deterrence? According to U.S. Joint Publication 3.0 Joint Operations, deterrence “prevents adversary action through the presentation of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction and belief that the cost of the action outweighs the perceived benefits.”- “Capability consists of having the means to influence behavior.
- “Credibility consists of maintaining a level of believability that the proposed actions may actually be employed. Credibility depends on the appearance of the deterrent from the adversary’s point of view. For effective deterrence, credibility hinges on having a convincing capability to execute a variety of … options and a willingness to employ these options.
- “Communication consists of transmitting the intended message to the desired audience. For effective deterrence, this messaging should articulate … [a country’s] resolve to employ capabilities that deny the benefits of adversary action and impose costs on them.”
Military Risk to Taiwan
Ian Easton (from Project 2049 Institute) and other analysts argue that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has several military plans to force the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan’s official name) to become part of communist China.I assume the most likely PLA course of action (COA) is a blockade (coercive quarantine). The most dangerous COA is an invasion.
Taiwan’s Military Deterrence
In response to PLA threats, Taiwan’s military should maximize its lethality and deterrence effect by dramatically increasing its defense investment in the following areas:- Weapon capabilities and related support:
- Defensive: Anti-ship, anti-air, anti-submarine, anti-missile (missile defense), anti-armor/tank, cyber defense (national level).
- Offensive capabilities: long-range strike (air to ground, surface-to-surface-missiles, ship to shore, etc.), asymmetric and unconventional capabilities.
- Manpower (fully trained and mission-ready personnel on active duty and reserves).
- Enhanced quality and quantity of training (realistic training along with a developed war fighting skill maintenance program).
- War planning that includes realistic exercises and a functioning and well-funded lessons-learned program.
- Establish a comprehensive alternative analysis and red team concept in all war planning, exercises, and training.
- National, regional, municipal, and local administrations:
- Emergency services planning, training, and exercises.
- Organizations that would be needed: hospitals, police, fire department, and first responders.
- Business preparations would include operating under constrained conditions, such as loss of power, reduced staff, critical supplies reduced availability, degraded infrastructure (roads and bridges damaged), and other constraints.
- Civilian preparations (neighborhoods, families, individuals) would include degraded food and water supplies, lack of energy (electricity, gas, petrol), degraded infrastructure, lack of medicines, medical support, banking services disruptions, and other challenges.
- Planning, training, exercises, and lessons-learned implementation program for all levels.
Enhance Taiwan’s Resilience to Disasters
By accomplishing these tasks, the ROC will be better prepared for war, other emergencies (natural emergencies such as earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons), and manmade events (accidents and war), enhancing its overall resilience. These actions communicate deterrence. If the CCP and PLA accurately comprehend the ROC’s preparations, the CCP should conclude that subjugating the ROC would be difficult and very costly.If the United States decides to join Taiwan in resisting and deterring PLA aggression, the actions below should be pursued.
US Deterrence
In September 2022, the U.S. Congress proposed the Taiwan Policy Act (TPA). The joint Senate and House of Representatives agreed on the text of the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which incorporates many important parts of the TPA. Specifically, the NDAA reaffirms U.S. support for the defense of Taiwan in the following important areas:- Reaffirms Indo-Pacific Command’s authority to conduct joint exercises with Taiwan, no matter what the Chinese say.
- Invites Taiwan to join the Rim of the Pacific Exercise in 2024 to improve the readiness of their forces and send a message to Beijing.
- Funds military exercises with our allies and partners in the Pacific to counter China’s growing reach.
- Combined planning for various possible PLA COAs.
- Combined training and exercises to prepare for the PLA COAs planned against Taiwan.
- High level of investment now in weapon system procurement for Taiwan, both defensive and offensive capabilities, to address the multiple PLA COAs (not just the invasion COA).
- Third-party approval for U.S. weapon transfers from other countries to Taiwan.
Other Allied Support
Many other countries could be recruited to assist Taiwan at multiple levels. The first level is for Taiwan’s defense. These possible countries include Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Canada, NATO, and others. These countries could provide the following specific defense support:- Allow U.S. basing to support the defense of Taiwan operations.
- Conduct freedom of navigation operations with their navies and air forces.
- Assist Taiwan with missile defense offshore and onshore, as well as other weapon systems such as anti-ship systems.
Allied Economic and Political Warfare Support
If Taiwan’s allies cannot provide military assistance, they can provide political and economic support. Several countries, such as Lithuania and other Baltic and Central European countries, have stepped forward in this arena in the past several months.‘The Nail That Sticks Out Gets Hammered Down’
A famous Japanese idiom is “the nail that sticks out gets hammered down.” If many nails are standing up, then choosing which one to hammer complicates the simple problem of hammering a single nail. Applying this analogy to Taiwan, the Chinese regime’s power and attention would be dissipated among many nations for the regime to be effective in preventing countries from assisting Taiwan.If an individual country tries to sell or provide weapons to Taiwan or support Taiwan in other ways, then the CCP can apply direct pressure on that country. Collective action by many countries to provide weapons or other support presents a larger and more complex challenge to the CCP’s ability to stop all of them.
Many are aware that the United States has provided weapons to Taiwan. Less known are the French contributions to the ROC military, such as the Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft and the French La Fayette frigates. In the 1980s, the Netherlands sold two submarines to the ROC navy. And even less known are the weapons that Israel provided to Taiwan, such as the Shafrir air-to-air missile (Sky Sword or Tianjian), the Gabriel anti-ship missile (modified to become the Hsiung Feng or Brave Wind), upgraded heads-up display for the ROC AF aircraft, and the Dvora class fast patrol boats (Hai Ou or Seagull). Other countries can assist the ROC armed forces in increasing their capabilities.