The long-anticipated announcement of emission caps for Canada’s oil and gas industry has come to pass. Federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault is trumpeting the policy as a world-saver, while Premiers Danielle Smith and Scott Moe are calling it an economy destroyer. The stances of the politicians are predictable. What’s odd is that this political drama isn’t unfolding in Canada. It’s all being played out at the COP28 conference in Dubai.
It makes one wonder, just who is all this political theater being performed for?
Canadians will be the ones economically impacted by the emissions cap while the world environment will see no significant changes even if the emission targets are somehow met. Shouldn’t policies with such serious implications for Canadians be debated and discussed within Canada?
We are seeing the outcome of creeping globalism because domestic politicians feel it’s more important to pitch domestic policies at international events than at home. Mr. Guilbeault wants to be seen as the green saviour within the international climate change advocacy scene, while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith feels compelled to defend her province’s industries to other world leaders and investors overseas. Meanwhile, the views of Canadian citizens who will ultimately be the ones to pay the bill appear to be a secondary consideration.
While Guilbeault is saying everybody must do their part to fight climate change, his policies almost exclusively focus on western Canada’s oil and gas sector. It may be true that the oil and gas industry is the top-emitting single industry in Canada, but it’s still one among many other industries that create emissions. And while eastern Canadian industries appear to get a pass on regulations, western oil and gas producers are feeling piled upon by a distant federal government. The double standards are feeding Western alienation and threatening Canadian unity.
As it stands now, it is impossible to produce oil and gas without a degree of emissions. The Western Canadian energy sector has scrambled to comply with growing regulations and has had a degree of success. Ottawa’s original mandate was to have the oil and gas industry reduce methane emissions by 45 percent by 2025. The industry was on pace to exceed that target as it invested in emission-reduction technology. Then, as a reward to the industry for its efforts, the federal government moved the goalposts and is demanding the oil and gas sector reduce methane emissions by 75 percent below 2012 emission levels.
Investors and companies are frustrated and at the end of their rope. Attempts at compliance with regulations begin to feel futile when the government continues to reset the targets. Oil and gas development is a long game. A degree of predictability and stability is essential when considering capital investments as returns usually take years to materialize. In a global market, investment dollars are mobile. Canada’s energy sector could soon become an investment pariah.
The battle over control of the oil and gas sector will move back to Canada soon. The governments of Saskatchewan and Alberta are defiant and examining every possible way to hinder or block the federal incursions upon their prime industries. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is promising to stop collecting the carbon tax on natural gas sales and Premier Smith has invoked the sovereignty act to reject the 2035 net-zero electricity grid target. Court challenges are being prepared and 2024 is sure to be marked by an ongoing war of words between provincial and federal governments.
Does the Trudeau government really care what the western provinces think though?
Things are currently looking bleak politically for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He can’t seem to slow, much less reverse his plummeting in popular support across the country. Has he accepted the likelihood that he won’t win the next election and is now focused on implementing legacy policies for himself based on ideology?
It would explain a lot.
Prime Minister Trudeau has always wanted to be respected on the world stage. He desperately pursued and failed to get a seat on the U.N. Security Council. He has had trouble in diplomatic circles with several overseas blunders over the years. He remains popular with the climate change set, however, so he may be trying to entrench his legacy there.
If Trudeau’s eyes are focused on winning support from international climate activists and he has lost sight of the economic burden his policies are placing on Canadians, the political environment between the federal government may move beyond being challenged and become outright toxic.
Even if the courts do support provincial jurisdiction and shut down the emissions caps, it will take years. Investment will flee and the goal of hindering the expansion of Canada’s oil and gas industry will have been achieved.
Perhaps things will cool down over the winter parliamentary break and reason will prevail. If ideology among political leaders has trumped pragmatism, however, we could be heading to the biggest unity crisis the nation has seen since the 1995 Quebec referendum.
