Commentary
The current Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the longest-running minority government in Canadian history aside from an unusual government under Mackenzie King which shifted back and forth between majority and minority status in the 1920s. On average, Canadian minority governments last 18 months before an election is invoked. If the Trudeau government stays in power until the expected election date in October 2025, it will be the first true minority government to have remained in power for a full electoral term.
As the Liberal government enters its fourth year in office, the dynamic in Parliament has shifted as Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has dissolved the supply-and-confidence agreement it made with Trudeau in early 2022. Although the NDP and Liberals never formed a formal coalition government, the agreement allowed Trudeau to govern comfortably as if he had a majority. The compromise was to take a strong leftward tack in policy with initiatives such as national dental, pharmacare, and childcare programs. The NDP has determined they have wrung all they can from the agreement and want to regain their partisan independence as an election year approaches.
Although Singh has been talking strongly against the Liberals, he’s no more eager to enter an election than Trudeau is. Both the Liberals and NDP are low in public support surveys would likely face electoral decimation if they hit the polls right now. Singh has said he will look at Liberal policies and motions on a case-by-case basis before deciding whether his party will support them. The likelihood of the NDP leader purposely bringing the government down on a confidence vote anytime soon is very low, though he wants to maintain the impression that it’s possible.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet senses an opportunity and has offered his party’s support to maintain the Liberal government—but with conditions, of course. Blanchet hasn’t expressed what concessions he would expect to keep the Liberals in power, but it can be safely assumed they would be policies that benefit Quebec and further entrench its status as an exceptional province within the federation. The Trudeau government hasn’t publicly responded to the offer, but it must be considering the ramifications of it.
Although Singh doesn’t really want to bring down the government, he would love to be able to take a strong stance against it in the House of Commons through a vote. The NDP’s foundation is based on organized labour. Part of why Singh felt compelled to end the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals was due to the government imposing binding arbitration in the national railway labour dispute. If the government considers imposing binding arbitration in a potential Air Canada pilots’ strike, Singh will be in a tough spot.
How can he support workers while yet again keeping in power a government that’s imposing arbitration?
The support of the Bloc may give him an out. If Singh feels the Bloc would support the Liberals in a confidence vote, he could comfortably vote against it. It would offer at least the optics that the NDP can stand on principle when push comes to shove.
If Trudeau cuts a deal with the Bloc to win a confidence vote, he risks inflaming already tense regional divisions within Canada, particularly in the West. However, the Liberals have never shied from playing regional favourites when trying to win general electoral support. Annoyed Western premiers likely won’t influence them much right now.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are riding high in the polls and they are eager to invoke an election, if only they could. Poilievre will try to make the government face confidence votes in the House of Commons as many times as he can. Those votes will force the Liberals to cut a deal with either the Bloc or the NDP, which will likely lead to even more weakening in support for the Liberals.
In the next year, the Liberals will be trying to regain public support. The NDP will be trying to defer an election while appearing independent of the Liberals. The Bloc will be trying to attain goodies for Quebec, and the Conservatives will be trying to take the government down. Lost in all those battles will be the need for solid economic, social, and international policy stances.
Minority governments act as a humbling mechanism for political parties and can inspire compromise and good policies. If they have been in power too long though, the priorities of the House become partisan survival and brinkmanship rather than good governance.
The political dance in Canada’s Parliament will be fascinating for political watchers and frustrating for citizens who want to see good policies rather than political posturing, intrigue, and games.
It’s time that Canada had a majority government in power again, but it could be over a year before voters get the chance to elect one.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
