The sudden collapse of the BC United Party will radically change the dynamic of the upcoming general election in British Columbia. Polls show the BC Conservatives sitting just a couple of points behind the governing NDP. BC United has seen its support plummet in past months, but in still holding nearly 10 percent of the vote, their presence on the ballot would impact many close races.
While BC United was considered right-of-centre, it can’t be assumed that everybody who had supported them will gravitate to the BC Conservatives. BC United had been courting centre to centre-left voters for months. Many of those supporters might feel more comfortable with the NDP than the Conservatives and shift their support that way. Some small-c conservative types were shying away from the BC Conservatives over personal conflicts with the party or singular policy stances. While they may not support the NDP, they may choose to stay home on election day.
The conservative-leaning parties of B.C. didn’t have a coordinated merger over months, as Alberta’s conservative parties did when the United Conservative Party was formed under Jason Kenney’s leadership. BC United Leader Kevin Falcon’s abrupt announcement of the dissolution of the party appears to have been unplanned and almost unilateral. It has put the remnants of the party into a state of disarray and there’s no evident transition plan for current MLAs, nominated candidates, party operatives, and party donors to move to a new party. Not all resources will effectively make it to the Conservative Party in time to be of help with an election looming in a little more than six weeks.
There still will be battles to be had between candidates in constituencies where they had been in place and campaigning for months. Even though the BC United Party has fallen apart, they still have 23 incumbent MLAs. Many of those politicians are popularly supported in their constituencies and could draw strong support in the election even if they run as independent candidates. Some have already announced they don’t plan to contest the next election but others are holding uncertain status and their participation in some constituencies could still turn some seats over to the NDP in a split.
Rustad has been given a boon with Falcon’s sudden partisan retreat, but he still has a tough balancing act to pull off if the Conservative Party is to capitalize on the political shift fully. Rustad can reach out and try to pull incumbent BC United MLAs into the fold of his party, but in doing so he will surely enrage some of his party loyalists.
Candidates, volunteers, and donors have been working hard for months under the Conservative Party of B.C. banner. If they are suddenly told to step aside for the incumbent MLA, many will not take it well and not every candidate will be willing to take one for the team. Rustad must participate in some delicate diplomacy, and he doesn’t have a long timeline to work with. He can’t referee merger meetings in dozens of constituencies when he needs to be campaigning in a general election.
BC NDP Leader David Eby has some tough decisions to make as well. He has been able to stay ideologically true to the NDP thanks to conservatives splitting up support on the right side of things. Now he must consider some pragmatism in policies if he wants to pick up disillusioned BC United voters. If he can come up with some policy compromises to shift a little closer to the centre, he could mitigate the risk from a United Party opponent. But he also faces risks on the left, as the B.C. Green Party will happily welcome any disillusioned NDP volunteers and voters. Other NDP voters may choose not to vote at all, which could be disastrous for the party in such a tight race.
The B.C. election remains too close to call. It has now become a two-party race for the most part, but smaller political entities can still impact the race if the leaders of the top two parties fail to consolidate their support. While there are seven weeks until election day, the actions of the leadership within the NDP and the Conservative Party of B.C. in the next three weeks will be critical.
The environment is volatile, and there isn’t much time left to recover from strategic errors.
