Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s move to make changes on his front benches doesn’t come as a surprise. The extent of the shuffle indicates this change has been in the works for some time and the government is feeling strong pressure to rebrand itself.
With the Liberal government having been in power for eight years, voter fatigue is setting in. Polls have indicated a slow but steady decline in public support for the governing party. Doing a major cabinet shuffle is a way a prime minister can try to refresh the administration, and summer is a prime season for such a move.
Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino’s cabinet ouster wasn’t unexpected. Mendicino’s entire term in cabinet has been tumultuous. First, he oversaw the implementation of the Emergencies Act to clear the Freedom Convoy protesters in Ottawa in 2022. Former RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki resigned under questionable circumstances partly under Mendicino’s watch. The fallout from the Chinese election interference scandal has landed on Mendicino’s feet. The government was forced to walk back its firearms ban with Bill C-21, and the scandalous move of notorious murderer Paul Bernardo to a medium-security prison sealed Mendicino’s fate.
Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc has added public safety to his portfolio. His hands will be full as demands for a public inquiry into the Chinese Communist Party interference scandal continue.
Transport Minister Omar Alghabra is out as airline woes have infuriated Canadian and international travellers for over two years. If the failure to get a handle on air travel issues wasn’t enough, the perceived mishandling of the recent strike of port workers on the West Coast made the decision to drop Alghabra from cabinet easier. Alghabra is clearly upset with his demotion, as his tersely released statement said he will not run for re-election.
Heritage Minister Pablo Rodriguez has been moved to Transport while Pascale St-Onge moves from Ministry of Sport to Heritage. Getting Rodriguez out of Heritage may open the door to productive negotiations with Meta and Google as the tech giants continue to rebel against Bill C-18. Negotiations have been in a stalemate under Rodriguez.
Backbench Toronto MP Ya'ara Saks moves into Bennett’s role.
Justice Minister David Lametti is finished in cabinet. While Lametti has been steady in his role in justice, the controversies with high-profile crimes and his foot-dragging with bail reforms have undercut confidence in his leadership in the role.
Toronto MP Arif Virani will assume the role of Justice Minister.
Treasury Board President Mona Fortier has been removed from her posting. The recent civil service strike fell under her jurisdiction as minister. Canadians experiencing poor service from government agencies such as CRA and Service Canada were nonplussed with striking workers demanding and being granted generous raises during hard times. In taking Fortier from her role, Trudeau is hoping to put that event behind him.
Anita Anand has been moved from defence to the Treasury Board while Bill Blair, formerly minister of emergency preparedness, takes over defence in a lateral move.
Several junior cabinet portfolios have been shuffled as well making this the most substantial single cabinet shuffle in Justin Trudeau’s term as prime minister to date.
Senior ministers Melanie Joly, Christia Freeland, and Stephen Guilbeault all remain secure in their roles.
To implement such a large cabinet shuffle while in a minority government position is a gamble. Several senior Liberal MPs will be upset about losing their roles while some aspiring MPs may be upset with not making the cut for cabinet. Caucus loyalty is very important for the prime minister and he is surely working hard to smooth some ruffled feathers right now.
Having a large influx of junior members assuming senior roles in cabinet brings risk as well. They are taking on difficult portfolios in a minority government. Canadians have little appetite for more scandals or indications of inept management from the Liberal government.
This fall session of Parliament will surely be a raucous one as Pierre Poilievre’s CPC will put pressure on the new ministers while they try to find their feet.
This is Trudeau’s last available move to try and turn the tide in the polls.
If the Liberal fortunes don’t improve in the next session, Party supporters won’t be asking for another cabinet shuffle. They will be seeking a new leader.
