Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made his usual appearance at this year’s Calgary Stampede, an event that draws over one million visitors to the rodeo and midway every year.
Although he often gets a chilly reception at the 10-day festival which draws politicians of all stripes out of the woodwork, Trudeau usually makes an appearance at the Stampede.
On the controversial side, the Stampede was dominated by pictures of Premier Danielle Smith and federal Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre posing with a man wearing a “straight pride” shirt. On a lighter side, a video of Trudeau messing up the flipping of a pancake at a Stampede breakfast went viral. Amidst the internet outrage and laughs over the follies of politicians was an important meeting between Trudeau and Smith, their first since her United Conservative Party was re-elected in May in a tight race.
While the meeting was civil, there were no concessions made by either party in their disagreement over emissions policy. In fact, both the premier and prime minister drew solid lines in the sand and indicated they weren’t willing to budge. The battle lines are being drawn in a jurisdictional battle that may impact federal/provincial relations nationwide.
Trudeau has hitched his wagon to emissions control. He wants his legacy to be that of the prime minister who tackled climate change. Carbon taxes, emission regulation, and erecting regulatory roadblocks for oil and gas development have been his prime policy tools. All those agendas negatively impact the energy industry in Western Canada. He has shown little interest in lightening up on those policies or extending the deadlines he has set for emission reduction targets.
Smith has steadfastly claimed the federal emission reduction targets are unrealistic and demands they be reconsidered. The federal plan is to have Alberta reach net-zero electricity generation by 2035 and for energy companies to reduce emissions dramatically by 2030.
Over 80 percent of Alberta’s electricity is generated through natural gas, and the province hasn’t the large river systems it would take to replace that energy source with a non-emitting process. Large investments have been made in wind and solar generation but those sources still only fill a small part of the province’s energy demands. It’s unlikely Alberta could reach the emission targets set, even if the provincial government was a willing participant.
The federal government is unclear about what may happen if provinces or industries don’t meet emission reduction targets. Will transfer payments be cut? Will licences for oil and gas companies be revoked? Will there be fines? Any actions punishing Alberta or its industries for not meeting emission targets will generate fierce opposition from the province.
Smith didn’t mince words after meeting with Trudeau when she said, “Our province will have no choice but to use alternative policy options to protect our rights independent of federal interference.”
She is clearly referencing Alberta’s controversial Sovereignty Act which she campaigned on and brought into being shortly after winning the UCP leadership to become Alberta’s premier. The Sovereignty Act isn’t terribly clear on what it could or would do if it was invoked, however. The act has been accused of being a form of soft separatism by some, while others have said it only protects provincial rights while supporting a united Canada. If a conflict between Alberta and the federal government leads to the invocation of the act, we can all be assured the battle will quickly move to the courts.
Every politician benefits from having a counterpart to campaign against. Trudeau will paint himself as the protector of the environment willing to stand up to those dastardly western Canadian oil and gas producers. Smith will take the stance of being a provincial saviour protecting Alberta from yet another Trudeau PM who wants to pillage the energy industry.
Both politicians will see increased electoral support from their bases as they clash with each other. That gives neither politician any incentive to compromise.
The Trudeau/Smith Summit at the Calgary Stampede didn’t catch the eyes of the nation, but it was significant. Passive aggressive shots have been fired. Things will become less passive as the impasse continues between Alberta and Ottawa over emissions.
We are just seeing the beginning of this fight, as neither Trudeau nor Smith indicates any willingness to compromise.
