Cory Morgan: Political Intrigue and Speculation: Will Mark Carney Join the Liberals?

Canada 2020 Advisory Board Chair Mark Carney speaks during the Canada 2020 Net-Zero Leadership Summit in Ottawa on April 19, 2023. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick

Commentary

The House of Commons may be on a summer break, but the political actions and manoeuvring within Parliament are still going strong.

The governing Liberals can’t find traction to pull themselves out of a protracted slump in the polls while the clock ticks down to the next scheduled general election. Tacticians and operators within the Liberal Party are well aware that something major needs to happen if they are to turn the page and start climbing back up in the polls, but they can’t seem to settle on a path. The strange dance between former Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney and the Prime Minister’s Office highlights the political intrigue unfolding in the top levels of Canada’s governing party.

There have been calls from some current and former Liberals for Prime Minister Trudeau to step aside, especially since the byelection loss in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto–St. Paul’s. If a seat as safe as Toronto–St. Paul’s can be lost by the Liberals, any seat could be lost. Current Liberal MPs are starting to fear for their jobs, and some are doubtless of the opinion that the answer is a new leader.

The prime minister has dismissed such calls, and many senior Liberals have stood by his side, arguing that he is still their best chance.

One of the cases made by some who are against replacing Justin Trudeau as the Liberal leader has been to ask: “Who would we replace him with?”

It’s a fair question. No superstars are standing out in the Liberal caucus as potential candidates for the leadership, nor have there been many high-profile people showing interest in taking on the role. Except for Mark Carney that is, who at least has said he hasn’t ruled it out.

Speculation has been rife that Carney has leadership ambitions with the Liberal Party for years. It’s become more acute since the party’s tumble in popular support has brought about speculation on Trudeau’s tenure as the party leader. While Carney has never outright said he wants to pursue the party leadership, he’s never denied such ambitions when asked directly about it. He is carefully straddling the fence on the issue.

Carney has held high positions, including serving as governor for both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and is well connected in government circles. He is currently comfortably employed within the Toronto finance sector.

The question must be asked though: Why would Carney want the leadership of the Liberal Party at this stage, with the party lower in the polls?

Even if the top job opens and Carney secures the leadership, there’s a risk he could repeat the situation when Michael Ignatieff was leader, taking the party to third place in the 2011 election. Or even worse, repeating the 1993 election with Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives winning only two seats.

It comes down to ambition and timing. While Carney isn’t elderly, he is nearly 60 years old, and openings for the Liberal leadership don’t come often. If he wants to make a run for prime minister, he may feel that the clock is ticking for him.

Another challenge facing Carney is that Trudeau is showing no indication he is willing to give up the job anytime soon. Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner speculated in an X thread that Trudeau may have just pulled a Machiavellian end run and stunted Carney’s ambitions with a purposeful leak to the Globe and Mail.

It was reported in the Globe that Trudeau may be courting Carney for the role of finance minister, and that the Prime Minister’s Office felt that current Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland wasn’t adequately selling the budget to Canadians. Trudeau then denied any lack of confidence in Freeland and appeared with her at events in a show of apparent unity. At the same time, it was leaked to the Globe that Trudeau was indeed holding meetings with Carney to bring him into the government.

These recent leaks and actions have undercut confidence in Chrystia Freeland’s role and have also pigeonholed Mark Carney. Whether it was by intent or accidental, Carney now must clarify what his intentions are.

Trudeau’s courtship of Carney could also be for a reason as innocent as wanting to take a different path on the fiscal policy front.

Does Carney really want to serve in a cabinet role in Trudeau’s government while it limps along?

Would joining Trudeau’s government at this point soil Carney’s future chances at being prime minister? Right now, he can still distance himself from the government’s unpopularity.

It all must be resolved by this fall’s parliamentary session if the Liberals want to show a stable, unified front as a party and government.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.