Opposition motions in the House of Commons are usually little more than political theatre. Non-binding points of principle and resolutions are made that often are voted down and are usually soon forgotten.
The motion being considered in Parliament next week is different. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership and legacy may be on the line.
The motion put forth by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is straightforward. It calls for pausing the application of the carbon tax for all forms of home heating in Canada. From a tactical perspective, the motion is a political masterstroke. No matter which way the motion goes, Trudeau loses.
The irony of this hopeless political trap is that Trudeau set it himself when he carved out a carbon tax exemption for homes using heating oil. Rather than bolstering his flagging support in Atlantic Canada with the move, Trudeau has created a political catastrophe for himself and his party.
Since becoming prime minister in 2015, Trudeau has made fighting climate change his top focus. He has framed climate change as an existential threat to the world and created an ever-increasing carbon tax as his tool to reduce Canadian emissions. He has stood firm through political opposition and court battles against the tax, and the tax has become his signature policy.
In one fell swoop, Trudeau has managed to shatter his credibility on his own tax.
If indeed the carbon tax is essential in saving the world from climate change, how on earth could Trudeau selectively apply it in good conscience? In suspending the tax for a region where he needs to garner political support, he is saying political expediency is more important than fighting climate change.
It was bizarre listening to Trudeau explaining how heating oil is the dirtiest of heat sources, thus we must remove the carbon tax upon it. Isn’t the point of the carbon tax to discourage the use of environmentally unfriendly forms of energy and heat?
Trudeau made a case against his own tax.
The regionally targeted suspension of the carbon tax did manage to unify some regions and political figures that usually don’t agree on many things.
There are many Liberal MPs from regions where natural gas heating is common, and their constituents will not be impressed as their heating costs rise due to the carbon tax while other regions get a pass. Some of those MPs are surely starting to question whether their loyalty to Justin Trudeau may be worth potentially losing their seat in the next election.
If Liberal MPs break ranks and vote for Poilievre’s motion, the carbon tax will be all but dead along with Trudeau’s political future.
So far, the prime minister has dug in his heels and is adamant he won’t carve out any more exemptions from the carbon tax. He has painted himself into what appears to be an impossible corner.
Trudeau has proven adept at skating away from scandals in the past. He may have a rabbit to pull out of his hat, and he can never be counted out. His political future looks bleak, however, and it may be a self-inflicted wound that brings it to a close.
