Cory Morgan: Ottawa’s New Clean Energy Regulations Will Further Alienate Prairie Provinces

Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault speaks during a media availability at the Climate Positive Energy Initiative conference in Toronto on Aug. 10, 2023. Arlyn McAdorey/The Canadian Press

Commentary

Canada is heading into a constitutional battle that will stress national unity.

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault’s recently announced plan to force provinces into net-zero electrical grids brought immediate and harsh condemnation from both Alberta and Saskatchewan’s premiers.

The reaction from Premiers Moe and Smith was neither unexpected nor unjustified. Creating a net-zero emission grid in Alberta and Saskatchewan by 2035 is impossible, and the effort to create such a grid could be economically catastrophic.

Alberta and Saskatchewan don’t have the luxury of large river systems that can be dammed as Eastern provinces do. They don’t have nuclear energy plants either. What they do have is abundant natural gas resources which the regions are heavily dependent upon for electricity and heating. Those two provinces will be disproportionately impacted by the proposed emissions regulation and the provincial governments know it.

The language from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was uncompromising in calling the draft regulations unconstitutional and irresponsible. The statement from her office said: “They will not be implemented in our province — period,”

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe was just as clear in his opposition to the regulations, calling them unconstitutional and vowing not to implement them. Moe went further in saying: “We will not ask our residents to pay the extraordinary price for the federal government’s divisive policies, nor will we risk the integrity of our provincial power grid to defy the laws of thermodynamics.”

Guilbeault hasn’t responded yet to the premiers, but it’s pretty safe to say he won’t be backing down.

Politically, Guilbeault has nothing to lose in going to figurative war with the Prairie provinces. The emission regulations will be applauded in Ontario and Quebec where they won’t have a measurable impact on the economy. Guilbeault can paint the Western provinces as bogeymen and lay blame on them if any national emission targets are missed. His political gains in the east will outweigh the loss of the two Liberal seats in Alberta (there are none in Saskatchewan).

The stalemate over the policy is certain to end up in the Canadian courts. Both the federal and provincial governments have some constitutional authority to be applied to the issue. Energy generation and natural resource development are provincial jurisdictions. Meanwhile, the federal government has authority over environmental regulations.

It will take years to sort out, and the rulings are not likely to favour the provincial governments.

In March 2021, Canada’s Supreme Court concluded that while the federal carbon tax does tread on provincial jurisdiction as per the constitution, emissions control is so important it overrides provincial authority on the matter. “If Canada’s Parliament was blocked from addressing emissions in any way,” Chief Justice Richard Wagner said, “irreversible harm would be felt across the country,”

There is little reason to believe the Supreme Court will rule differently when it comes to emission regulation.

The federal government has set emission reduction targets, but has missed them regularly since the 1990s. This time it’s different, though, as the government isn’t just setting targets—it’s planning to impose regulations to ensure the targets are met.

Alberta and Saskatchewan have both had growing demand for electric generation. If citizens start switching to electric vehicles and heat as Ottawa would like them to, the demand on the electric grid will increase quickly and exponentially. If the provinces can’t develop and bring more natural gas-generated power into the grid quickly, the consequences could be dire both in dollars and public safety.

While Guilbeault hasn’t proposed banning natural gas generation, it’s clear he plans to phase it out. His policies will put a heavy chill on capital investment in new power plants. Who would put their dollars into a facility targeted by the feds for a shutdown or heavy regulation? Companies don’t want to be caught in the middle.

Last December during a cold snap, Alberta’s electric system operator had to issue alerts as generating capacity was being pushed to the limit. Despite leading the nation in developing wind and solar power, Alberta found itself in a dangerous situation. If the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow, the power capacity plummets. Gas heating exists, but without electricity furnaces don’t operate. The province needs more gas-generating capacity and fast. Saskatchewan is in a similar situation.

If the policies of Guilbeault lead to blackouts and brownouts in the Prairie provinces for lack of generating capacity, the rage from citizens will be palpable. Growing electric bills will feed the ire as well.

Premier Smith has the Sovereignty Act and Premier Moe has the Saskatchewan First Act. Both of those acts are certain to be invoked as the provinces vow to ignore federal regulations.

In the meantime, a growing number of citizens in Alberta and Saskatchewan will be questioning the merits of remaining in confederation. It’s becoming harder to think of many.

Both camps are entrenched in a political battle that may rend the nation if a compromise can’t be found.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.