The much-anticipated resignation of Prime Minister Trudeau has happened. Sort of.
There is still a lot of ambiguity about what Trudeau’s resignation means and when he will officially step down as party leader. He stated he would leave when the Liberal Party selects a new leader.
Does that mean an interim leader? If so, that could happen as early as Jan. 8. Trudeau still has a caucus meeting this week, and members could demand that he steps aside sooner rather than later so they can appoint someone to fill the role during a leadership race.
How long will it be if they keep Trudeau on as leader until the end of a leadership race?
Traditionally, leadership races with the federal Liberal party last five or six months. Parliament has been prorogued until March 24, and when the session resumes, confidence votes will be held. If the Liberals haven’t selected a new leader and replaced Trudeau by that time, it’s possible he could still be leading the party into another election if the government falls. Or the party could be going into an election with an interim leader. Both scenarios bode terribly for an election campaign.
Former Conservative House Leader Jay Hill told me that Standing Orders in the House of Commons obligate the government to pass an interim supply bill by March 26 to carry it until the end of June. Money bills are automatic confidence votes. It will either pass or there will be an election.
The Liberals could fast-track a leadership race and install a new leader by the end of March. It would upset contenders for the job, however. But then the question must be asked: Who would want to run for the role, when a new leader could be driven into an election campaign within a week of taking it on?
What the Liberals desperately need is time, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains the linchpin to keep them in power. Singh has said his party will vote to bring down the Liberal government no matter who becomes leader, but there is always a chance he may cut a deal in the near future if the Liberals make a big enough concession on policy items sought by the NDP, and in short order.
If Singh cuts a deal with the Liberals to maintain confidence in the government, the breathing space could draw more leadership contenders to the race. A candidate could hope to lead the party into the fall before an election, and recover some support for the party in that time.
In the meantime, Trudeau has gone from being a lame-duck leader to a dead duck. Donald Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. president in weeks and has shown no indication of backing down on his vow to impose devastating tariffs on Canadian trade goods. Trump already held Trudeau in low regard. He is unlikely to offer any concessions to Trudeau in further negotiations.
An interim leader, though temporary, could offer a fresh face in the negotiations with Trump. The Liberal caucus is surely considering this.
If Trudeau wants to convince the caucus to keep him on as leader through a leadership race, his best bet is to push for a truncated race. They would throw the doors open fast and get somebody selected by mid-March.
Contenders for the leadership must act quickly in such a scenario. The race would be a tough and probably divisive one as candidates struggle to organize and garner support with only a two-month window to work with.
The Liberals desperately need a new face, but do any outsiders have the will or the organization in place to take the role?
Any sitting Liberal MPs will carry the baggage of the Trudeau government—which is trailing in the polls—as they go into an election. Some may take a shot just to have been prime minister, if only for a short time, but they are unlikely to turn the party fortunes around.
Mark Carney and Christy Clark have both kicked the leadership tires but neither has committed to run. Being party outsiders, they wouldn’t have a network in place to hit the ground running in a race with such tight timelines.
Justin Trudeau’s resignation has offered anything but stability to the nation. Canada is going to be in a period of flux possibly into the fall.
Polls have made it clear most Canadians are ready to embrace new leadership in Ottawa. Trudeau has formally set the ball in motion to pick a replacement. Unfortunately, it will leave Canada without an effective government for months. The nation needs clarity on the process and timelines for the leadership race as soon as possible. If questions remain, the government could fall into further turmoil at a time when the country needs stable leadership.
